{"id":10469,"date":"2016-05-12T19:56:54","date_gmt":"2016-05-12T10:56:54","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=10469"},"modified":"2016-05-12T19:56:54","modified_gmt":"2016-05-12T10:56:54","slug":"%e4%b8%8a%e6%b5%b7%e7%b7%8f%e5%90%88%e6%8c%87%e6%95%b0%e9%80%b1%e8%b6%b3%e3%83%bb%e3%83%90%e3%83%96%e3%83%ab%e5%b4%a9%e5%a3%8a%e5%be%8c%e3%81%ab%e3%81%a9%e3%81%86%e3%81%aa%e3%81%a3%e3%81%9f%e3%81%8b-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=10469","title":{"rendered":"\u4e0a\u6d77\u7dcf\u5408\u6307\u6570\u9031\u8db3\u30fb\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u5d29\u58ca\u5f8c\u306b\u3069\u3046\u306a\u3063\u305f\u304b\uff1f\uff087\uff09\u30fb\u518d\u4e0b\u843d\u958b\u59cb\u306f6\u6708\u304b9\u6708\/SSE Composite Index (Shanghai: 000001.SS) Weekly (7); re-fall will start June or September. \/\u4e0a\u8bc1\u6307\u6570\u3002\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u540e\uff0c\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u600e\u6837\uff1f\u7b2c7\u90e8\u3002\u91cd\u65b0\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5c06\u8d77\u52a86\u6708\u8fd8\u662f9\u6708\u3002"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u4e0a\u6d77\u7dcf\u5408\u6307\u6570\u9031\u8db3\u30fb\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u5d29\u58ca\u5f8c\u306b\u3069\u3046\u306a\u3063\u305f\u304b\uff1f\uff087\uff09\u30fb\u518d\u4e0b\u843d\u958b\u59cb\u306f6\u6708\u304b9\u6708<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

SSE Composite Index (Shanghai: 000001.SS) Weekly (7); re-fall will start June or September.<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u8bc1\u6307\u6570\u3002\u6ce1\u6cab\u7834\u88c2\u540e\uff0c\u53d8\u6210\u4e86\u600e\u6837\uff1f\u7b2c7\u90e8\u3002\u91cd\u65b0\u4e0b\u8dcc\u5c06\u8d77\u52a86\u6708\u8fd8\u662f9\u6708\u3002<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u672c\u65e5\u306f\u4e0a\u6d77\u7dcf\u5408\u6307\u6570\u9031\u8db3\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

2015\/07\/19<\/a>\u30682015\/10\/06<\/a>\u30682015\/10\/29<\/a>\u30682015\/11\/28<\/a>\u30682016\/1\/29<\/a>\u30682016\/03\/30\u306e\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8<\/a>\u3067\u306f\u300c\u4e0a\u6d77\u7dcf\u5408\u6307\u6570\u9031\u8db3\u30fb\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u5d29\u58ca\u5f8c\u306b\u3069\u3046\u306a\u3063\u305f\u304b\uff1f\u30fb\u65e5\u7d4c\u3001\u30c0\u30a6\u5de5\u696d\u682a\u3068\u6bd4\u8f03\u300d\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u65e5\u306f\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u306e\u69d8\u5b50\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u5831\u544a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s analyze is SSE Composite Index weekly data.<\/font><\/p>\n

We reported \u201cSSE Composite Index (Shanghai: 000001.SS) Weekly; After Bubble Burst, what it would be?; Comparing N225 and DJI\u201d in 07\/19\/2015<\/a>, 10\/06\/2015<\/a>, 10\/29\/2015<\/a>, 11\/28\/2015<\/a>, 1\/29\/2016<\/a> and 03\/30\/2016<\/a>.<\/font><\/p>\n

Today, we introduce what happened after that.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2015\/07\/19\u306e\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8<\/a>\u3067\u306f\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u5831\u544a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

2. 35\uff5e45\u9031\u306e\u4e0b\u3052<\/b><\/p>\n

\u30a2\u30e4\u623b\u3057\u304b\u3089\u306e\u4e0b\u3052\u5730\u70b9\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/p>\n

\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3067\u306f\u8a31\u3057\u3066\u3082\u3089\u3048\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/b><\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u6d77\u306e\u76f8\u5834\u306b\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u3081\u308b\u3068\u30012016\u5e742\u6708\u4e0a\u65ec\u304b\u30892016\u5e744\u6708\u4e2d\u65ec\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/b><\/p>\n

\u3074\u3063\u305f\u308a\u30ab\u30f3\u30ab\u30f3\u306e\u52d5\u304d\u3067\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u306e\u7279\u5fb4\u3068\u7167\u3089\u3057\u5408\u308f\u305b\u305f\u3060\u3051\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5c0e\u304d\u51fa\u3055\u308c\u308b\u8003\u5bdf\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5024\u52d5\u304d\u304c\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u65e5\u67c4\u3092\u306a\u305e\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u4e2d\u56fd\u7d4c\u6e08\u306e\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u304c\u5d29\u58ca\u3057\u305f\u8a3c\u62e0\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

We reported under these in 07\/19\/2015.<\/a><\/font><\/p>\n

2. The fall of from 35 to 45 weeks<\/font><\/b><\/p>\n

This is after technical rally and fall.<\/font><\/b><\/p>\n

But this is not the major bottom.<\/font><\/b><\/p>\n

Applying Shanghai market, this will be from the beginning of February, 2016 to the middle of April, 2016.<\/font><\/b><\/p>\n

This was the proper report but we only apply the past market price movement.<\/font><\/p>\n

We can conclude Chinese bubble has already busted because the price followed the past market price movement.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u6d77\u7dcf\u5408\u6307\u6570\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u304b\u3089\u8003\u5bdf\u3067\u304d\u308b\u91cd\u8981\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u306f\u3001\u623b\u308a\u304c\u60aa\u3044\u70b9\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

2016\/03\/30\u306e\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8<\/a>\u3067\u306f\u3001\u7d42\u5024\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u306e\u623b\u308a\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u306f\u3001-1\u03c3\u304c3019\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3001AV\u304c3175\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3068\u60f3\u5b9a\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u623b\u308a\u9ad8\u5024\u306f3078.12\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5024\u5e45\u7684\u306b\u306f\u3001\u4e0a\u6d77\u7dcf\u5408\u6307\u6570\u306f2700\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u53f0\u3092\u5e95\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u53cd\u8ee2\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u300135\u300136\u300138\u9031\u30682700\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u53f0\u3092\u7dad\u6301\u3057\u305f\u305f\u3081\u3001\u306a\u304b\u306a\u304b\u6d6e\u4e0a\u3067\u304d\u305a\u306b\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306f\u9802\u70b9\u304b\u308941\u9031\u306e1990\u5e7410\u6708\u521d\u65ec\u306b20000\u5186\u5272\u308c\u3092\u307f\u3066\u53cd\u8ee2\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u6d77\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u7bc0\u306f3000\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3067\u3042\u308a\u30013000\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u3053\u3048\u3066\u8d8a\u9031\u3067\u304d\u305f\u306e\u306f43\u9031\u306845\u9031\u306e\u307f\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

3000\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u306f\u30ec\u30b8\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30b9\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u3053\u306e\u5148\u306e\u300c\u5c71\u9ad8\u304f\u8c37\u6df1\u3057\u300d\u3092\u6697\u793a\u3059\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

We can know Shanghai market recovery is worst.<\/font><\/p>\n

In 03\/30\/3016<\/a>, the expected recovery price (Close price based) are -1 sigma is 3019point and AV is 3175 point and actual recovery price was 3078.12point.<\/font><\/p>\n

From the price range view, Shanghai market was supported 2700 point around and took 2700 point around in 35, 26 and 38 week.<\/font><\/p>\n

N225 in 1990, the price cut 20000yen at41 week (Beginning of October 1990) and reversed.<\/font><\/p>\n

In Shanghai market, convenient number is 3000 point and cutting over this number was 43 and 45 week.<\/font><\/p>\n

3000 point seems to be the resistance point and this market may imply a future mess.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u3082\u3046\u4e00\u70b9\u6c17\u306b\u306a\u308b\u52d5\u304d\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

2007\u5e74\u306e\u30c0\u30a6\u5de5\u696d\u682a\u3067\u3059\u3002\uff08\u8d64\u7dda\uff09<\/p>\n

\u30c0\u30a6\u5de5\u696d\u682a\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u300135-45\u9031\u306f\u304a\u3068\u306a\u3057\u3044\u52d5\u304d\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001\u3053\u3053\u304b\u3089\u4e00\u6c17\u306b\u4e0b\u5024\u3092\u63a2\u308a\u3060\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

40\u9031\u3067\u3064\u3051\u305f\u5b89\u5024\u3092\u4e00\u76ee\u6570\u5b57\u306e51\u9031\u306b\u540c\u5024\u300152\u9031\u306b\u5272\u308a\u8fbc\u3093\u3067\u3044\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u6d77\u7dcf\u5408\u6307\u6570\u306b\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u3081\u308b\u30685\u6708\u6700\u7d42\u9031(51\u9031)\u304b\u3089\u30016\u6708\u7b2c1\u9031(52\u9031)\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

2007\u5e74\u306e\u30c0\u30a6\u5de5\u696d\u682a\u306f59\u9031\u306757%\u307e\u3067\u843d\u3061\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u65e2\u306b\u4e0a\u6d77\u7dcf\u5408\u6307\u6570\u306f\u3001\u540c\u3058\u3088\u3046\u306a\u5024\u5e45\u307e\u3067\u843d\u3061\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u4eca\u306e\u3068\u3053\u308d\u518d\u4e0b\u843d\u306f\u8003\u3048\u306b\u304f\u3044\u3068\u307f\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u76f8\u5834\u306f\u76f8\u5834\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u66f4\u306a\u308b\u52a0\u901f\u7684\u306a\u4e0b\u843d\u3082\u8003\u616e\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

The other notable point is DJI in 2007. (Red line)<\/font><\/p>\n

In DJI, the market price was calm from 35 weeks to 45 weeks but it felled after that.<\/font><\/p>\n

The market price cut 40 week\u2019s low price in 51 week and 52 week.<\/font><\/p>\n

Applying to Shanghai market, this will be from the end of May to the beginning of June.<\/font><\/p>\n

DJI in 2007 felled 57% in 59 week but Shanghai market has already dropped similar zone; it seems to be difficult fall more.<\/font><\/p>\n

But we cannot say true future and the price may fall more.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u30e1\u30a4\u30f3\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u306f\u3001\u65e2\u306b\uff12\u756a\u5e95\u3092\u3064\u3051\u3066\u304a\u308a\u30019\u6708\u4e0a\u65ec\u307e\u3067\u306f\u307e\u3061\u307e\u3061\u306e\u6301\u3061\u5408\u3044\u76f8\u5834\u3068\u307f\u308b\u306e\u304c\u30d5\u30a1\u30fc\u30b9\u30c8\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3057\u304b\u3057\u306a\u304c\u3089\u3001\u5024\u3082\u3061\u3057\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u30016\u6708\u304b\u3089\u306e\u7206\u767a\u7684\u306a\u4e0b\u3052\u304c\u3042\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3082\u5426\u5b9a\u3067\u304d\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

Our main scenario is steadiness will continue at the beginning of September and the major bottom has already taken.<\/font><\/p>\n

But cannot keep the price, a big fall may come in June.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"CHART\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font>Contact Us<\/font><\/a>\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n

These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n

Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u884c\u60c5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u6ee1\u8db3\u60a8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u6982\u4e0d\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u76c8\u4e8f\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n

\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u8bbf\u95ee\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u518d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u4e0a\u6d77\u7dcf\u5408\u6307\u6570\u9031\u8db3\u30fb\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u5d29\u58ca\u5f8c\u306b\u3069\u3046\u306a\u3063\u305f\u304b\uff1f\uff087\uff09\u30fb\u518d\u4e0b\u843d\u958b\u59cb\u306f6\u6708\u304b9\u6708 SSE Composite Index (Shanghai: 000001.SS) Weekly (7); re-fall will star […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,11],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-10469","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-report","category-sse-composite-index"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10469","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=10469"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10469\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":10470,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/10469\/revisions\/10470"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=10469"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=10469"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=10469"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}