{"id":11716,"date":"2017-01-03T09:02:52","date_gmt":"2017-01-03T00:02:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=11716"},"modified":"2017-01-03T09:02:52","modified_gmt":"2017-01-03T00:02:52","slug":"%e6%97%a5%e7%b5%8c%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e5%b9%b4%e8%b6%b3%e3%81%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%ef%bc%883%ef%bc%89%e3%83%bb%e6%97%a5%e7%b5%8c%e6%96%b0%e8%81%9e2016%e5%b9%b4%e3%80%812017%e5%b9%b4%e5%85%83%e6%97%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=11716","title":{"rendered":"\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u8db3\u306e\u5206\u6790\uff083\uff09\u30fb\u65e5\u7d4c\u65b0\u805e2016\u5e74\u30012017\u5e74\u5143\u65e5\u300c\u682a\u4fa1\u30fb\u7d4c\u55b6\u8005\u304c\u5360\u3046\u300d\u304b\u3089\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3059\u308b\u3068\u5f7c\u3089\u306f\u65e2\u306b\u9ad8\u5024\u8b66\u6212\u611f\/NIKKEI 225 annual No.3; Modeling from predictions of Japanese presidents (Nikkei article 1\/1\/2017 and 1\/1\/2016), they think now is enough high\/\u65e5\u7ecf225\u3002\u5e74K\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff083\uff09\u3002\u6839\u636e\u65e5\u7ecf\u62a5\u7eb82017\u5e741\u67081\u65e5\u548c2016\u5e741\u67081\u65e5\uff1a\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u603b\u7ecf\u7406\u4eec\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5206\u6790\u3002"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u8db3\u306e\u5206\u6790\uff083\uff09\u30fb\u65e5\u7d4c\u65b0\u805e2016\u5e74\u30012017\u5e74\u5143\u65e5\u300c\u682a\u4fa1\u30fb\u7d4c\u55b6\u8005\u304c\u5360\u3046\u300d\u304b\u3089\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3059\u308b\u3068\u5f7c\u3089\u306f\u65e2\u306b\u9ad8\u5024\u8b66\u6212\u611f<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

NIKKEI 225 annual No.3; Modeling from predictions of Japanese presidents (Nikkei article 1\/1\/2017 and 1\/1\/2016), they think now is enough high<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u7ecf225\u3002\u5e74K\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff083\uff09\u3002\u6839\u636e\u65e5\u7ecf\u62a5\u7eb82017\u5e741\u67081\u65e5\u548c2016\u5e741\u67081\u65e5\uff1a\u5bf9\u65e5\u672c\u7684\u603b\u7ecf\u7406\u4eec\u7684\u9884\u6d4b\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u65e5\u7d4c\u65b0\u805e\u5143\u65e5\u53f7\u306b\u306f\u65e5\u672c\u306e\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u306a\u7d4c\u55b6\u8005\u306e\u682a\u4fa1\u4e88\u6e2c\u304c\u6bce\u5e74\u63b2\u8f09\u3055\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u65e5\u306f2016\/1\/1\u53f7\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u30682017\/1\/1\u53f7\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u3092\u4f7f\u3044\u4eca\u5e74\u306e\u682a\u4fa1\u3092\u60f3\u5b9a\u3057\u3066\u307f\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4eca\u5f8c\u3001\u6bce\u5e74\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u30fc\u53ce\u96c6\u3092\u7d9a\u3051\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u30ea\u30d5\u30a1\u30a4\u30f3\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304d\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

Every beginning of the year in Nikkei newspaper article, Japanese notable presidents predict the highest and lowest in N225 market.<\/font><\/p>\n

We use last year\u2019s prediction and this year prediction and expect by our method.<\/font><\/p>\n

We will gather this data and refine our model from now on.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u306f\u3058\u3081\u306b2016\u5e74\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u306e\u7279\u5fb4\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d4c\u55b6\u8005\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u6708\u30de\u30bf\u30ae\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u4e2d\u9593\u5024\u3092\u3068\u308a\u3001\u7e26\u8ef8\u306f\u6708\u3001\u6a2a\u8ef8\u306b\u682a\u4fa1\u3092\u3068\u3063\u3066\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9ad8\u5024\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u306f22300\u5186\u3001\u6708\u306f9.6\u6708\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b89\u5024\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u306f18000\u5186\u3001\u6708\u306f5\u6708\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

2016\/12\u306b\u3064\u3051\u305f\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u5b89\u5024\u306f19592.9\u5186\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

2016\/6\u306b\u3064\u3051\u305f\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u5b89\u5024\u306f14864.01\u5186\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8003\u5bdf\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u3068\u6bd4\u8f03\u3057\u305f\u3068\u304d\u306b\u3001\u5b9f\u969b\u306b\u3064\u3051\u305f\u4fa1\u683c\u3088\u308a\u3082\u5b89\u304f\u3001\u6642\u671f\u304c\u9045\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5b9f\u969b\u306e\u9ad8\u5024\u3082\u5b89\u5024\u3082\u9ad8\u3081\u306b\u51fa\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u300c\u793e\u9577\u306e\u30ea\u30c3\u30d7\u30c8\u30fc\u30af\u300d\u3092\u4e57\u305b\u3066\u3044\u308b\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306b\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

First, we compare the prediction in 2016 and the practical price and derive the character.<\/font><\/p>\n

In Nikkei article, some presidents predict several months; we use the mid-point and vertical direction is for month and horizontal direction is for N225 price.<\/font><\/p>\n

The average of the highest price and month are 22300yen and 9.6 month.<\/font><\/p>\n

The average of the lowest price and month are 18000yen and 5 month.<\/font><\/p>\n

The practical highest and lowest were 19592.9yen and 14864.01yen.<\/font><\/p>\n

We can derive they predicted lower price and later period to the practice; they well answered than they truly<\/font> expected.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"chart1\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"chart2\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2017\u5e74\u3082\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306e\u300c\u5916\u3057\u3063\u3077\u308a\u300d\u3092\u3057\u3066\u304f\u308c\u308b\u3068\u4eee\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u671f\u5f85\u5024\u304c\u30012017\u5e74\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u304b\u3089\u306e\u540c\u4e00\u306e\u7dda\u5f62\u5909\u63db\u306b\u4f4d\u7f6e\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5b89\u5024\u306f6\u6708\u306b14300\u5186\u3001\u9ad8\u5024\u306f11\u6708\u306b19100\u5186\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6628\u5e74\u306e\u7d42\u5024\u306f19,114.37\u5186\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u65e2\u306b\u65e5\u672c\u306e\u793e\u9577\u306f\u9ad8\u5024\u8b66\u6212\u30e2\u30fc\u30c9\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

In 2017 case, we assume they predict same range of difference.<\/font><\/p>\n

If the expected price exists at linear transformation point, the lowest will be 14300yen in June and the highest will be 19100yen in November.<\/font><\/p>\n

The close price in last year was 19,114.37yen and Japanese major presidents may have already expected \u201cNow is highest\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5ea7\u6a19\u306e\u53d6\u308a\u65b9\u3067\u7d50\u679c\u306f\u7570\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3055\u3089\u306b\u300c\u5916\u3057\u3063\u3077\u308a\u300d\u306e\u30b9\u30ab\u30e9\u30fc\u91cf\u304c\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u304b\u3089\u306e\u5186\u72b6\u306b\u5206\u5e03\u3059\u308b\u3068\u4eee\u5b9a\u3057\u3066\u7dda\u5f62\u5909\u63db\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9ad8\u5024\u306f20400\u5186\u7a0b\u5ea6\u304b\u308919000\u5186\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3001\u5b89\u5024\u306f14300\u5186\u7a0b\u5ea6\u304b\u308915250\u5186\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9ad8\u5024\u5074\u306f1996\u5e74\u578b\u3001\u305d\u308c\u3088\u308a\u30821963\u5e74\u578b\u306e\u76f8\u5834\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u308d\u3046\u305d\u304f\u8db3\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u5b8c\u74a7\u3067\u3059\u3002(2016\/01\/02\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u53c2\u7167<\/a>)<\/p>\n

\u3044\u305a\u308c\u306b\u305b\u3088\u3001\u300c\u6765\u5e74\u306f\u53b3\u3057\u3044\u300d\u3068\u611f\u3058\u3066\u3044\u308b\u793e\u9577\u304c\u591a\u3044\u70b9\u306b\u7559\u610f\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

The result is different by the method of the coordinates and more, we assume the expected price has same scalar.<\/font><\/p>\n

We can result the highest will be from 20400yen to 19000yen and the lowest will be from 14300yen to 15250yen.<\/font><\/p>\n

This result fits 01\/02\/2016 report;<\/a> when the candle stick formation will be similar to 1963 pattern, this occasion is very proper and when the formation will be similar to 1996 pattern, the highest occasion will be proper.<\/font><\/p>\n

In any way, their outlooks is being at carefully.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"chart3\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"chart4\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font>Contact Us<\/font><\/a>\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n

These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n

Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u884c\u60c5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u6ee1\u8db3\u60a8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u6982\u4e0d\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u76c8\u4e8f\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n

\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u8bbf\u95ee\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u518d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u8db3\u306e\u5206\u6790\uff083\uff09\u30fb\u65e5\u7d4c\u65b0\u805e2016\u5e74\u30012017\u5e74\u5143\u65e5\u300c\u682a\u4fa1\u30fb\u7d4c\u55b6\u8005\u304c\u5360\u3046\u300d\u304b\u3089\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3059\u308b\u3068\u5f7c\u3089\u306f\u65e2\u306b\u9ad8\u5024\u8b66\u6212\u611f NIKKEI 225 annual No.3; Modeling from prediction […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-11716","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-report","category-nikkei-225"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11716","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=11716"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11716\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":11718,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/11716\/revisions\/11718"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=11716"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=11716"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=11716"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}