{"id":12803,"date":"2017-06-06T00:03:43","date_gmt":"2017-06-05T15:03:43","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=12803"},"modified":"2017-06-06T00:03:43","modified_gmt":"2017-06-05T15:03:43","slug":"%e3%83%89%e3%83%ab%e5%86%86%e3%81%a8%e6%97%a5%e7%b5%8c%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e3%83%bb%e6%ad%b4%e5%8f%b2%e7%9a%84%e3%81%ab%e3%81%af%e3%83%89%e3%83%ab%e5%86%86%e3%81%8c109%e5%86%86%e5%8f%b0%e6%9c%aa","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=12803","title":{"rendered":"\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u3068\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u30fb\u6b74\u53f2\u7684\u306b\u306f\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u304c109\u5186\u53f0\u672a\u6e80\u3060\u3068\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306e20000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u306f\u96e3\u3057\u304f\u306a\u308b\u50be\u5411\/USDJPY and N225 historically relation; when USDJPY became less than 109yen, keeping 20000yen over became difficult gradually. \/\u7f8e\u5143\/\u65e5\u5143\u548c\u65e5\u7ecf225\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\/\u65e5\u5143\u5c0f\u4e8e109\u65e5\u5143\u65f6\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da820000\u65e5\u5143\u3002"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u3068\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u30fb\u6b74\u53f2\u7684\u306b\u306f\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u304c109\u5186\u53f0\u672a\u6e80\u3060\u3068\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306e20000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u306f\u96e3\u3057\u304f\u306a\u308b\u50be\u5411<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

USDJPY and N225 historically relation; when USDJPY became less than 109yen, keeping 20000yen over became difficult gradually.<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\/\u65e5\u5143\u548c\u65e5\u7ecf225\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u7f8e\u5143\/\u65e5\u5143\u5c0f\u4e8e109\u65e5\u5143\u65f6\uff0c\u7ee7\u7eed\u4e0a\u6da820000\u65e5\u5143\u3002<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u8ca1\u52d9\u7701\u3001\u5186\u9ad8\u3067\u3082\u8cab\u304f\u300c\u6c88\u9ed9\u306e\u6625\u300d\uff08\u65e5\u7d4c\u65b0\u805e\u30fb2017\/4\/13\uff09<\/p>\n

\u300e\u300c\u30ce\u30fc\u30b3\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u3060\u300d\u300213\u65e5\u5348\u524d\u3001\u8ca1\u52d9\u7701\u5e79\u90e8\u306f\u30c8\u30e9\u30f3\u30d7\u6c0f\u306e\u767a\u8a00\u3067\uff11\u30c9\u30eb\uff1d108\u5186\u53f0\u306b\u4e0a\u6607\u3057\u305f\u5186\u76f8\u5834\u306b\u518d\u3073\u6c88\u9ed9\u3092\u5b88\u3063\u305f\u3002\u300f<\/p>\n

\u672c\u5f53\u306f\u4f55\u304b\u8a00\u3044\u305f\u304b\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u308c\u4ee5\u964d\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u5e9c\u9ad8\u5b98\u306f\u3001\u70ba\u66ff\u6c34\u6e96\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u30b3\u30e1\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u767a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

108\u5186\u53f0\u306b\u5165\u308b\u3068\u4f55\u304b\u3044\u3044\u305f\u304f\u306a\u308b\u70b9\u306f\u6ce8\u76ee\u306b\u5024\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

Japanese Ministry of Finance: Yen becomes stronger but they say nothing (Nikkei article 4\/13\/2017)<\/font><\/p>\n

\u201c\u2019We have no comment!\u2019 In 4\/13\/2017, Trump insisted about foreign exchange and USDJPY became 108yen around but Japanese executive commented nothing about the level.\u201d<\/font><\/p>\n

What he want today?<\/font><\/p>\n

After this time, there is no Nikkei article the level of foreign exchange.<\/font><\/p>\n

The best notable point is lower than 108 yen around seems to be meaningful.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u672c\u65e5\u306f\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u574720000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u3068USDJPY\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u3092\u8abf\u67fb\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d50\u8ad6\u306f\u6b74\u53f2\u7684\u306b109\u5186\u672a\u6e80\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306820000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u7dad\u6301\u306f\u96e3\u3057\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n

Today, we analyze the relation between 20000yen over in N225 and USDJPY.<\/font><\/p>\n

Our conclusion is historically, less than 109yen, keeping 20000yen over gets difficulty.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u65e5\u8db3\u3092\u4f7f\u3044\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u304c20000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u3068\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u55b6\u696d\u65e5\u65e5\u6570\u3092\u8abf\u67fb\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u304c\u306f\u3058\u3081\u306620000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u3060\u3063\u305f\u306e\u306f\u30011987\/01\u672b\u30012017\/6\/2\u307e\u3067\u306b1810\u55b6\u696d\u65e5\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\uff08\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u304c\u591a\u5c11\u602a\u3057\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u50be\u5411\u306f\u3064\u304b\u3081\u307e\u3059\uff09<\/p>\n

\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u304c20000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u308b1810\u55b6\u696d\u65e5\u306e\u306a\u304b\u3067\u3001USDJPY\u306e\u5024\u304c120\u5186\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u308b\u55b6\u696d\u65e5\u306f71%\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u304a\u307c\u308d\u3052\u306b\u300c120\u5186\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u306a\u3044\u306820000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u306f\u7121\u3044\u300d\u3068\u611f\u3058\u308b\u306e\u306f\u5f53\u7136\u3067\u3042\u308a\u30012015\u5e74\u306e\u300c20000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u306f120\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u300d\u306e\u671f\u9593\u3068\u91cd\u306a\u3063\u305f\u305f\u3081\u3001\u300c\u3084\u3063\u3071\u308a\u306d\u300d\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u307e\u305f\u3001\u300c20000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u304b\u3064120\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u300d\u306e\u671f\u9593\u306e\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u306f\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u671f\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u6700\u3082\u5186\u9ad8\u306720000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u3068\u306a\u3063\u305f\u306e\u306f1994\/7\/12\u306b\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u574720400\u5186\u306796.89\u5186\u3068\u306a\u3063\u305f\u6642\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u3046\u3057\u305f\u95a2\u4fc2\u3092\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u95be\u5024\u304c109\u5186\u3068108\u5186\u306e\u9593\u3067\u6025\u901f\u306b20000\u5186\u53f0\u304c\u6e1b\u308a\u59cb\u3081\u308b\u5730\u70b9\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306e\u304c\u3001\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

We use the daily close price of N225 and survey 20000yen over points.<\/font><\/p>\n

At the end of 01\/1987, N225 went over 20000yen at the first time and there were 1810 days the close price was 20000yen over to 6\/2\/2017. (Our using data has some doubt but we can grab tendency)<\/font><\/p>\n

In 1810 days the close price was 20000yen over, there was 71% that USDJPY was 120yen over.<\/font><\/p>\n

It is natural to imagine that \u201c200yen over means 120yen over\u201d and it was natural in 2015 occasion.<\/font><\/p>\n

And in Japanese bubble, this fact fits in all business days.<\/font><\/p>\n

When N225 was 20000yen over, the lowest USDJPY was 96.89yen and N225 close was 20400yen in 7\/12\/1994.<\/font><\/p>\n

Plotting this relation, we can see sharp reduce from 109yen to 108yen around.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"01\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"02\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u3082\u3061\u308d\u3093\u3001\u6b74\u53f2\u7684\u306b108\u5186\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306720000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u304c\u306a\u304b\u3063\u305f\u3068\u306f\u3044\u3048\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304c\u300120000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u306e\u7dad\u6301\u304c\u6b21\u7b2c\u306b\u96e3\u3057\u304f\u306a\u308b\u5fc3\u7406\u7684\u7bc0\u76ee\u3067\u3042\u308b\u70b9\u3092\u7406\u89e3\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

Of course, we can see 20000yen over in lower than 108yen but we can know this price around is the watershed of the market.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"03\"<\/a>\"04\"<\/a>\"05\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font>Contact Us<\/font><\/a>\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n

These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n

Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u884c\u60c5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u6ee1\u8db3\u60a8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u6982\u4e0d\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u76c8\u4e8f\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n

\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u8bbf\u95ee\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u518d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u3068\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u30fb\u6b74\u53f2\u7684\u306b\u306f\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u304c109\u5186\u53f0\u672a\u6e80\u3060\u3068\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306e20000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u306f\u96e3\u3057\u304f\u306a\u308b\u50be\u5411 USDJPY and N225 historically relation; when USDJPY became les […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,3,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12803","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-usdjpy","category-report","category-nikkei-225"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12803","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12803"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12803\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":12804,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12803\/revisions\/12804"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12803"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12803"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12803"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}