{"id":12838,"date":"2017-06-10T21:12:38","date_gmt":"2017-06-10T12:12:38","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=12838"},"modified":"2017-08-09T12:09:55","modified_gmt":"2017-08-09T03:09:55","slug":"%e6%97%a5%e7%b5%8c%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e3%81%a8topix%e9%96%a2%e9%80%a3%e6%80%a7%e3%83%bb%e9%81%8e%e5%8e%bb%e3%82%92%e3%81%aa%e3%81%9e%e3%82%8b%e3%81%aa%e3%82%89topix%e3%81%ae1613-18point%e3%81%af","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=12838","title":{"rendered":"\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u3068TOPIX\u95a2\u9023\u6027\u30fb\u904e\u53bb\u3092\u306a\u305e\u308b\u306a\u3089TOPIX\u306e1613.18point\u306f\u30ec\u30b8\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30b9\u306b\u306a\u308b\u304b\u3082\/Relation between TOPIX and N225; following the past price movement, 1613.18point in TOPIX may work as resistance. \/\u5728\u65e5\u7ecf225\u548c\u4e1c\u8bc1\u7efc\u5408\u6307\u6570\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5982\u679c\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u4ef7\u548c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u8bdd,1613.18\u70b9\u4e2d\u7684\u70b9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u963b\u529b\u3002"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u3068TOPIX\u95a2\u9023\u6027\u30fb\u904e\u53bb\u3092\u306a\u305e\u308b\u306a\u3089TOPIX\u306e1613.18point\u306f\u30ec\u30b8\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30b9\u306b\u306a\u308b\u304b\u3082<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

Relation between TOPIX and N225; following the past price movement, 1613.18point in TOPIX may work as resistance.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

\u5728\u65e5\u7ecf225\u548c\u4e1c\u8bc1\u7efc\u5408\u6307\u6570\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5173\u7cfb\u3002\u5982\u679c\u73b0\u5728\u7684\u4ef7\u548c\u8fc7\u53bb\u7684\u4ef7\u683c\u4e00\u6837\u7684\u8bdd,1613.18\u70b9\u4e2d\u7684\u70b9\u53ef\u80fd\u4f5c\u4e3a\u963b\u529b\u3002<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u672c\u65e5\u306fTOPIX\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

Today is about TOPIX.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u300e\u7d50\u8ad6\u306f\u300c\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u3067\u306f\u682a\u6b32\u3057\u304f\u306a\u3044\u304b\u3082\u300d\u3068\u601d\u3048\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002\u300f\uff082017\/6\/8\uff09<\/a>\u3068\u7d39\u4ecb\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u4e00\u65b9\u3067Rally\u306b\u306a\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3082\u3042\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u5fc3\u306e\u6e96\u5099\u3060\u3051\u306f\u3057\u3066\u304a\u304d\u305f\u3044\u3068\u304a\u3082\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

We introduced \u201cOur conclusion is we do not want to take long position from mid-to-long term view\u201d (6\/8\/2017)<\/a> but Japanese market may become a big rally and we need to prepare for it.<\/span><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

1997\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u3001\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306e20000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u306e\u5c40\u9762\u306f1997\u5e74\u30012000\u5e74\u30012015\u5e74\u3068\u4eca\u56de\u306e\u5c40\u9762\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

1997\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u306e\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306f21000\u5186\u624b\u524d\u306b\u30ac\u30e9\u30b9\u306e\u5929\u4e95\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u540c\u6642\u671f\u306eTOPIX\u3068\u6bd4\u8f03\u3059\u308b\u3068TOPIX\u306b\u306f\u5929\u4e95\u3089\u3057\u304d\u3082\u306e\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8208\u5473\u6df1\u3044\u306e\u306f\u3001\u672a\u3060\u306bTOPIX\u306f2007\u5e74\u9ad8\u5024\u3092\u672a\u3060\u629c\u3044\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u70b9\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8a00\u3044\u63db\u3048\u308b\u306a\u3089\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u72b6\u614b\u306f\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u3060\u3051\u306eRally\u306b\u307f\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

After 1997, in N225 market, 20000yen over phase were 4 times including the latest occasion.<\/span><\/p>\n

We can see glass ceiling at 21000yen around in this market.<\/span><\/p>\n

Comparing N225, there are no ceiling in TOPIX market.<\/span><\/p>\n

Notable point is TOPIX market does not take new high after 2007.<\/span><\/p>\n

In other word, the only rally market is N225.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"chart1\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u201c\u840e\u3048\u840e\u3048\u6d3e\u201d\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u4e0a\u6607\u57fa\u8abf\u306b\u4e57\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u30b7\u30b0\u30ca\u30eb\u3092\u8abf\u67fb\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u9375\u3068\u306a\u308b\u306e\u306f\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u304c20000\u5186\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u305f\u521d\u65e5\u306eTOPIX\u306e\u9ad8\u5024\u3068\u5b89\u5024\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

TOPIX\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u306b\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u304c20000\u5186\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u305f\u521d\u65e5\u306e\u9ad8\u5024\u3068\u5b89\u5024\u306b\u6a2a\u7dda\u3092\u5165\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

1997\u5e74\u30012015\u5e74\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u304c\u4e00\u65e6\u300120200\u5186\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u305f\u5730\u70b9\u3067\u3001TOPIX\u306e\u7d42\u5024\u304c20000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u521d\u65e5\u306e\u9ad8\u5024\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u3066\u304d\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u3001\u62bc\u3057\u3092\u5f62\u6210\u3057\u305f\u5730\u70b9\u306720000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u521d\u65e5\u306e\u5b89\u5024\u3092\u4e0b\u56de\u3063\u305f\u5730\u70b9\u304c\u3001\u826f\u3044\u8cb7\u3044\u5834\u3068\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

2000\u5e74\u306e\u5834\u5408\u306f\u300120000\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u521d\u65e5\u306e\u9ad8\u5024\u304c\u30ec\u30b8\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30b9\u3068\u3057\u3066\u6a5f\u80fd\u3057\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u76f8\u5834\u306e\u5929\u4e95\u611f\u3092\u6f14\u51fa\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

We are bearish but we prepare for the start of next rally signal.<\/span><\/p>\n

The key point is the TOPIX high and low price when N225 took 20000yen over.<\/span><\/p>\n

Under these are TOPIX chart and we line the highest and lowest price when N225 took 20000yen over.<\/span><\/p>\n

In 1997 and 2015 cases, after taking 20200yen over, TOPIX close price went up to the \u201cHighest\u201d of the first day.<\/span><\/p>\n

After that, TOPIX went down the \u201cLowest\u201d of the first day and that was great opportunity.<\/span><\/p>\n

In 2000 case, the \u201cHighest\u201d of the first day worked as the resistance and this occasion implied \u201cPeaked Out\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"chart2\"<\/a>\"chart3\"<\/a>\"chart4\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2017\u5e74\u306e\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u76f8\u5834\u306b\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u3081\u308b\u3068\u30012017\/6\/2\u306b\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306f20000\u5186\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

2017\/6\/2\u306eTOPIX\u306e\u9ad8\u5024\u306f1613.18\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3001\u5b89\u5024\u306f1593.94\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3082\u3057\u3001\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u304c20200\u5186\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u3001\u304b\u3064\u3001TOPIX\u304c1613.18\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u305f\u65b0\u9ad8\u5024\u306e\u7d42\u5024\u3092\u3068\u308c\u3070\u3001\u518d\u4e0a\u6607\u306e\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u9ad8\u307e\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u304c\u4f38\u3073\u3066\u3044\u3063\u3066\u3082\u3001TOPIX\u306e1613.18\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u304c\u30ec\u30b8\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30b9\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u3089\u3001\u5929\u4e95\u611f\u6e80\u70b9\u3068\u306a\u308b\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

Applying this to the latest case, the N225 first day taking 20000yen over was 6\/2\/2017.<\/span><\/p>\n

In 6\/2\/2017, the highest was 1613.18point and the lowest was 1593.94point in TOPIX market.<\/span><\/p>\n

If N225 will go 20200yen over and TOPIX will go 1613.18point over at the same time in close price, this will be the signal of next rally.<\/span><\/p>\n

But N225 rally will continue and 1613.18point around in TOPIX will work as resistance, this will suggest \u201cPeaked Out\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

\"chart5\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/span>Contact Us<\/span><\/a>\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n

We do best effort for your request.<\/span><\/p>\n

These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/span><\/p>\n

Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/span><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u884c\u60c5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u6ee1\u8db3\u60a8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u6982\u4e0d\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u76c8\u4e8f\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n

\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u8bbf\u95ee\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u518d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u3068TOPIX\u95a2\u9023\u6027\u30fb\u904e\u53bb\u3092\u306a\u305e\u308b\u306a\u3089TOPIX\u306e1613.18point\u306f\u30ec\u30b8\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30b9\u306b\u306a\u308b\u304b\u3082 Relation between TOPIX and N225; following the past price […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[9,3,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-12838","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-topix","category-report","category-nikkei-225"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12838","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=12838"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12838\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13256,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/12838\/revisions\/13256"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=12838"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=12838"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=12838"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}