{"id":13629,"date":"2017-10-15T21:53:29","date_gmt":"2017-10-15T12:53:29","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=13629"},"modified":"2017-10-16T12:08:02","modified_gmt":"2017-10-16T03:08:02","slug":"%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac10%e5%b9%b4%e5%82%b5%e5%88%a9%e5%9b%9e%e3%82%8a%e3%83%bb%e7%b5%8c%e6%b8%88%e8%b2%a1%e6%94%bf%e8%ab%ae%e5%95%8f%e4%bc%9a%e8%ad%b0%e8%b3%87%e6%96%99%e3%80%81%e4%b8%ad%e9%95%b7%e6%9c%9f","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=13629","title":{"rendered":"\u65e5\u672c10\u5e74\u50b5\u5229\u56de\u308a\u30fb\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u8aee\u554f\u4f1a\u8b70\u8cc7\u6599\u3001\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8a66\u7b97\u30fb2020\u5e74\u4ee3\u524d\u534a\u306b\u9ad8\u91d1\u5229\u306b\u306a\u308b\uff1f\uff1f\/JGB 10-Year; CEFP, the estimation of finance and economy of Mid-to-long term; Japan will be high interest rate at the beginning of 2020. \/\u65e5\u672c10\u5e74\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3002\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u8d22\u52a1\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u5c06\u57282020\u5e74\u521d\u5b9e\u73b0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u3002\u771f\u7684\u5047\u7684\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><span style=\"color: #804040; font-size: large;\"><strong>\u65e5\u672c10\u5e74\u50b5\u5229\u56de\u308a\u30fb\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u8aee\u554f\u4f1a\u8b70\u8cc7\u6599\u3001\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8a66\u7b97\u30fb2020\u5e74\u4ee3\u524d\u534a\u306b\u9ad8\u91d1\u5229\u306b\u306a\u308b\uff1f\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #804040; font-size: large;\"><strong>JGB 10-Year; CEFP, the estimation of finance and economy of Mid-to-long term; Japan will be high interest rate at the beginning of 2020.<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #804040; font-size: large;\"><strong>\u65e5\u672c10\u5e74\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3002\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u8d22\u52a1\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u3002\u65e5\u672c\u5c06\u57282020\u5e74\u521d\u5b9e\u73b0\u9ad8\u5229\u7387\u3002\u771f\u7684\u5047\u7684\uff1f<\/strong><\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u65e5\u306f\u5185\u95a3\u5e9c\u30fb\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u306e\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8a66\u7b97\u3092\u5206\u6790\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3044\u308d\u3044\u308d\u3068\u7a81\u3063\u8fbc\u307f\u305f\u304f\u306a\u308b\u8cc7\u6599\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u9577\u671f\u91d1\u5229\u3060\u3051\u306b\u6ce8\u76ee\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">Today, we survived the document of Cabinet office, Government of Japan; CEFP, the estimation of finance and economy of Mid-to-long term.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">We want to say many things and only focus on Mid-to-long term interest rate.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"http:\/\/www5.cao.go.jp\/keizai2\/keizai-syakai\/shisan.html\">http:\/\/www5.cao.go.jp\/keizai2\/keizai-syakai\/shisan.html<\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u7d50\u8ad6\u306f\u3001\u30cf\u30c3\u30bf\u30ea\u6e80\u8f09\u3067\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3046\u307e\u304f\u3044\u304f\u3068\u30012020\u5e74\u4ee3\u524d\u534a\u306b\u9ad8\u91d1\u5229\u306b\u306a\u308a\u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">Our conclusion is this report contains claptrap and Japan will be high interest rate at the beginning of 2020.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u306f\u3058\u3081\u306b\u65e5\u672c\u56fd\u50b5\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u65e5\u9280\u306e\u300c\u9577\u77ed\u91d1\u5229\u64cd\u4f5c\u4ed8\u304d\u91cf\u7684\u30fb\u8cea\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7de9\u548c\u300d\u306e\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u67a0\u7d44\u307f\u306f\u30012016\/09\/21\u304b\u3089\u5b9f\u65bd\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8a00\u3044\u63db\u3048\u308b\u3068\u300c\u9244\u677f\u5929\u5e95\u4ed8\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u306b\u30ca\u30ec\u30ca\u30ec\u76f8\u5834\u64cd\u7e26\u300d\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3082\u3046\u5c11\u3057\u3001\u9577\u671f\u3067\u307f\u308b\u30682%\u304c\u30ec\u30b8\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30b9\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">This is JGB 10 year\u2019s chart.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">&#8220;Quantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control&#8221; (BOJ) was started in 09\/21\/2016.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">In other words, this is \u201cIron plated Market manipulation for inflation\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">Drawing more long term chart, we can see 2% worked as resistance point.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/chart1-7.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"background-image: none; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-width: 0px;\" title=\"chart1\" src=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/chart1_thumb-7.png\" alt=\"chart1\" width=\"644\" height=\"420\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u5185\u95a3\u5e9c\u30fb\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u306e\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8a66\u7b97\u306e\u4e2d\u3067\u306f\u3001\u7d4c\u6e08\u904b\u55b6\u304c\u4e0a\u624b\u304f\u3044\u3063\u305f\u6642\u3068\u3001\u5931\u6557\u3057\u305f\u3068\u304d\u306b\u5206\u304b\u308c\u3066\u3001\u8a66\u7b97\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9577\u671f\u91d1\u5229\u3060\u3051\u306b\u7740\u76ee\u3057\u3001\u4e0a\u624b\u304f\u3044\u3063\u305f\u3068\u304d\u3001\u5931\u6557\u3057\u305f\u3068\u304d\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u3092\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u898b\u7a4d\u3082\u308a\u304c\u7518\u304f\u3001\u76ee\u6a19\u9054\u6210\u304c\u5f8c\u305a\u308c\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3082\u3046\u4e00\u70b9\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u306e\u306f\u3001\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u8a66\u7b97\u307b\u3069\u91d1\u5229\u4e0a\u6607\u306e\u7acb\u3061\u4e0a\u304c\u308a\u304c\u65e9\u304f\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u70b9\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u4eca\u5f8c\u3001\u3069\u3053\u304b\u306e\u6642\u70b9\u3067\u91d1\u5229\u304c\u8df3\u306d\u308b\u3068\u307f\u3066\u304a\u304f\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">The estimation of finance and economy of Mid-to-long term surveys two patterns; success and failed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">Only noticing long-term interest rate, we can see CEFP estimation was too optimistic thinking; they cannot reach the goal and the plan was failed.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">And the most notable point is interest jump is sharp in the latest estimation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">That is to say, we need to preparing for jump!<\/span><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u6210\u529f\u30d1\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u304c\u5b9f\u73fe\u3059\u308b\u3068\u30012020\u5e74\u4ee3\u524d\u534a\u306b\u91d1\u5229\u306f2%\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2020\u5e74\u4ee3\u306e\u4e2d\u76e4\u306b\u306f4%\u53f0\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u65b0\u8208\u56fd\u4e26\u307f\u306e\u91d1\u5229\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">If the success pattern will come true, the interest rate at the beginning of 2020 will be 2% over.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">And in mid-2020\u2019s, this will be 4% over.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">This rate is close to developing nation.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/chart2-5.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"background-image: none; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-width: 0px;\" title=\"chart2\" src=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/chart2_thumb-5.png\" alt=\"chart2\" width=\"644\" height=\"419\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u5931\u6557\u30d1\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u3067\u306f\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u306e2%\u304c\u3001\u30ec\u30b8\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30b9\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">Failing pattern says 2% around will work as resistance.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/chart3-3.png\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"background-image: none; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-width: 0px;\" title=\"chart3\" src=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/10\/chart3_thumb-3.png\" alt=\"chart3\" width=\"644\" height=\"419\" border=\"0\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?page_id=41\">Contact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/span><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?page_id=41\"><span style=\"color: #408080;\">Contact Us<\/span><\/a><span style=\"color: #408080;\">\u201d.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">We do best effort for your request.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/span><\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #408080;\">Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/span><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u884c\u60c5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?page_id=41\">Contact Us<\/a>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u6ee1\u8db3\u60a8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u6982\u4e0d\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u76c8\u4e8f\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u8bbf\u95ee\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u518d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u65e5\u672c10\u5e74\u50b5\u5229\u56de\u308a\u30fb\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u8aee\u554f\u4f1a\u8b70\u8cc7\u6599\u3001\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8a66\u7b97\u30fb2020\u5e74\u4ee3\u524d\u534a\u306b\u9ad8\u91d1\u5229\u306b\u306a\u308b\uff1f\uff1f JGB 10-Year; CEFP, the estimation of finance and economy [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13629","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-report","category-japanese-government-bonds-10-year"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13629","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13629"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13629\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13631,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13629\/revisions\/13631"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13629"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13629"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13629"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}