{"id":13647,"date":"2017-10-16T20:54:22","date_gmt":"2017-10-16T11:54:22","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=13647"},"modified":"2017-10-16T20:54:22","modified_gmt":"2017-10-16T11:54:22","slug":"%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac10%e5%b9%b4%e5%82%b5%e5%88%a9%e5%9b%9e%e3%82%8a%e3%83%bb%e7%b5%8c%e6%b8%88%e8%b2%a1%e6%94%bf%e8%ab%ae%e5%95%8f%e4%bc%9a%e8%ad%b0%e3%80%81%e4%b8%ad%e9%95%b7%e6%9c%9f%e3%81%ae%e7%b5%8c","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=13647","title":{"rendered":"\u65e5\u672c10\u5e74\u50b5\u5229\u56de\u308a\u30fb\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u8aee\u554f\u4f1a\u8b70\u3001\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8a66\u7b97\u30fb2020\u5e74\u4ee3\u306b\u306f\u6240\u5f97\u306f\u5897\u3048\u308b\u304c\u3001\u7269\u4fa1\u3082\u4e0a\u304c\u308b\u3002\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3082\u4e0a\u304c\u308a\u305d\u3046\u306a\u306e\u306f\u91d1\u5229\/CEFP, the estimation of finance and economy of Mid-to-long term; In 2020’s, Income will get higher and commodity price will also get higher and Interest rate will get much higher. \/\u65e5\u672c10\u5e74\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u91d1\u878d\u987e\u95ee\u4f1a\u8bae\u3002\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u8d22\u52a1\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u30022020\u5e74\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u5c06\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u4e5f\u5c06\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u6700\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u672c10\u5e74\u50b5\u5229\u56de\u308a\u30fb\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u8aee\u554f\u4f1a\u8b70\u3001\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8a66\u7b97\u30fb2020\u5e74\u4ee3\u306b\u306f\u6240\u5f97\u306f\u5897\u3048\u308b\u304c\u3001\u7269\u4fa1\u3082\u4e0a\u304c\u308b\u3002\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3082\u4e0a\u304c\u308a\u305d\u3046\u306a\u306e\u306f\u91d1\u5229<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

CEFP, the estimation of finance and economy of Mid-to-long term; In 2020\u2019s, Income will get higher and commodity price will also get higher and Interest rate will get much higher.<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u672c10\u5e74\u56fd\u503a\u6536\u76ca\u7387\u3002\u7ecf\u6d4e\u91d1\u878d\u987e\u95ee\u4f1a\u8bae\u3002\u4e2d\u957f\u671f\u8d22\u52a1\u548c\u7ecf\u6d4e\u524d\u666f\u30022020\u5e74\uff0c\u6536\u5165\u5c06\u4e0a\u6da8\uff0c\u5546\u54c1\u4ef7\u683c\u4e5f\u5c06\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002\u5229\u7387\u5c06\u6700\u4e0a\u6da8\u3002<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6628\u65e5\u3001\u5b89\u500d\u664b\u4e09\u9996\u76f8\u306e\u6f14\u8aac\u3092\u805e\u3044\u3066\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u305d\u3053\u3067\u300c\u81ea\u6c11\u515a 2017\u653f\u7b56\u30d1\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u30c3\u30c8\u300d\u3092\u624b\u306b\u3044\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u5206\u6790\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

Last day, we heard Prime Minister Shinzo Abe addresses at center of Sapporo.<\/font><\/p>\n

And we got 2017 policy actions booklet of the Liberal Democratic Party.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"01\"<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u6ce8\u76ee\u3057\u305f\u306e\u306f\u300c\u5287\u7684\u306a\u751f\u7523\u6027\u306e\u5411\u4e0a\u3067\u3001\u56fd\u6c11\u306e\u6240\u5f97\u3092\u5897\u3084\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u300d <\/p>\n

Notable point is \u201cProductivity will get drastically higher and we increase income of nations\u201c.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"02\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5185\u95a3\u5e9c\u30fb\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u306e\u300c\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8a66\u7b97\u300d(2017\/7\/18)\u306e\u4e2d\u306b\u306f\u3001\u8cc3\u91d1\u4e0a\u6607\u7387\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u9805\u76ee\u306f\u306a\u3044\u305f\u3081\u3001\u304b\u308f\u308a\u306b\u300c\uff11\u4eba\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u540d\u76eeGNI\u300d\u3092\u4f7f\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\uff11\u4eba\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u540d\u76eeGNI\u304c\u9806\u8abf\u306b\u3042\u304c\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u30012018\u5e74\u5ea6\u3050\u3089\u3044\u304b\u3089\u30b0\u30a4\u30b0\u30a4\u8cc3\u91d1\u304c\u4e0a\u304c\u308b\u4e88\u5b9a\u306e\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u5931\u6557\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u306e\u300c\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u300d\uff08\u6700\u4f4e\u7dda\uff09\u3067\u306f\u3001\u4e0a\u6607\u7387\u304c\u4f4e\u304f\u6291\u3048\u3066\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

There is no item of wages in the document of Cabinet office, Government of Japan; CEFP, the estimation of finance and economy of Mid-to-long term.<\/font><\/p>\n

And we use \u201cnominal GNI per person\u201d instead.<\/font><\/p>\n

If \u201cnominal GNI per person\u201d will get higher, income of nations will get high after 2018FY.<\/font><\/p>\n

But failed case, \u201cBaseline case\u201d says growth is lower.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"chart1\"<\/a>\"chart2\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u305d\u3082\u305d\u3082\u3001\u5185\u95a3\u5e9c\u30fb\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u653f\u7b56\u306e\u300c\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8a66\u7b97\u300d(2017\/7\/18)\u306e\u8cc7\u6599\u3067\u306f\u6c7a\u5b9a\u7684\u306b\u6b20\u3051\u3066\u3044\u308b\u90e8\u5206\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300c\u7d4c\u6e08\u518d\u751f\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u300d\u3001\u300c\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u300d\u5171\u306b\u300c\u540d\u76eeGDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\u300d\u306f\u300c\u6f5c\u5728\u6210\u9577\u7387\u300d\u3092\u4e0a\u5f85\u3063\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u666f\u6c17\u5f8c\u9000\u304c\u8003\u616e\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

There is no critical master piece in the document of Cabinet office, Government of Japan; CEFP, the estimation of finance and economy of Mid-to-long term.<\/font><\/p>\n

Both \u201cEconomy recovery case\u201d and \u201cBaseline case\u201d are no consideration of recession.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"chart3\"<\/a>\"chart4\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u7d4c\u6e08\u518d\u751f\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u306e2017\u5e74\u5ea6\u30012020\u5e74\u5ea6\u30012025\u5e74\u5ea6\u306e\u540d\u76ee\u9577\u671f\u91d1\u5229\u3001\u540d\u76eeGDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\u3001\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u4fa1\u6307\u6570\u30011\u4eba\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u540d\u76eeGNI\u6210\u9577\u7387\u306e\u4e88\u6e2c\u5024\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

2020\u5e74\u5ea6\u306b\u306f\u30014%\u8fd1\u304f\u306e\u540d\u76eeGDP\u6210\u9577\u7387\u30011\u4eba\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u540d\u76eeGNI\u6210\u9577\u7387\u3092\u9054\u6210\u3057\u3001\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u7269\u4fa1\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u7387\u306f\u4f4e\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u751f\u6d3b\u306f\u697d\u306b\u306a\u308b\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3057\u304b\u3057\u30012020\u5e74\u5ea6\u304b\u30892025\u5e74\u5ea6\u306b\u304b\u3051\u3066\u540d\u76ee\u9577\u671f\u91d1\u5229\u306f\u3001\u8df3\u306d\u4e0a\u304c\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u5bb6\u3092\u5efa\u3066\u308b\u306a\u3089\u30012020\u5e74\u5ea6\u307e\u3067\u306e\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3060\u3051\u65e9\u3044\u6642\u671f\u306b\u56fa\u5b9a\u91d1\u5229\u304c\u826f\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u5177\u5408\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\uff1f\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u300c\u5287\u7684\u306a\u751f\u7523\u6027\u306e\u5411\u4e0a\u3067\u3001\u56fd\u6c11\u306e\u6240\u5f97\u3092\u5897\u3084\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8996\u70b9\u304b\u3089\u898b\u308b\u3068\u3001\u7269\u4fa1\u304c\u4e0a\u304c\u3089\u305a\u306b\u7d66\u6599\u3060\u3051\u3042\u304c\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u3082\u306e\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u5408\u683c\u70b9\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300c\u9577\u671f\u91d1\u5229\u3060\u3051\u306b\u7740\u76ee\u3057\u3001\u4e0a\u624b\u304f\u3044\u3063\u305f\u3068\u304d\u3001\u5931\u6557\u3057\u305f\u3068\u304d\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u3092\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u898b\u7a4d\u3082\u308a\u304c\u7518\u304f\u3001\u76ee\u6a19\u9054\u6210\u304c\u5f8c\u305a\u308c\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u300d(2017\/10\/15)<\/a>\u3068\u6307\u6458\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

This chart is about economy recovery case.<\/font><\/p>\n

We plot nominal mid-to-long term interest, nominal GDP growth, consumer price index and nominal GNI per person in 2017FY, 2020FY and 2025FY.<\/font><\/p>\n

In 2020FY, nominal GDP growth and nominal GNI per person will achieve 4% around and CPI growth will be lower than them; our life will seems to be better than now.<\/font><\/p>\n

But nominal mid-to-long term interest will jump from 2020FY to 2025FY.<\/font><\/p>\n

For example, like building a house will execute as soon as possible and will need fixed rate.<\/font><\/p>\n

From the view of \u201cProductivity will get drastically higher and we increase income of nations\u201c, CPI will not get higher than salary and this is proper public promise.<\/font><\/p>\n

We reported \u201cOnly noticing long-term interest rate, we can see CEFP estimation was too optimistic thinking; they cannot reach the goal and the plan was failed\u201d in 10\/15\/2017.<\/a><\/font><\/p>\n

\"chart5\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u306e\u30b1\u30fc\u30b9\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u30e9\u30a4\u30f3\u3068\u306f\u5b9f\u73fe\u3067\u304d\u306a\u3044\u5e0c\u671b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3088\u308a\u3082\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3088\u308a\u72b6\u6cc1\u304c\u60aa\u304f\u306a\u3063\u3066\u304d\u305f\u904e\u53bb\u3068\u601d\u3063\u305f\u65b9\u304c\u826f\u3055\u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

2020\u5e74\u5ea6\u306b1\u4eba\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u540d\u76eeGNI\u6210\u9577\u7387\u304c\u4f4e\u4e0b\u3059\u308b\u4eee\u5b9a\u306b\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

2020\u5e74\u5ea6\u307e\u3067\u306f\u3001\u7269\u4fa1\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u7387\u306f\u6b62\u307e\u3089\u306a\u3044\u306e\u3067\u3001\u7269\u4fa1\u306f\u4e0a\u304c\u308b\u3051\u3069\u3001\u7d66\u6599\u306f\u4e0b\u304c\u308b\u72b6\u614b\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

2025\u5e74\u5ea6\u306b\u306f\u66f4\u306b1\u4eba\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u540d\u76eeGNI\u6210\u9577\u7387\u306e\u4f38\u3073\u304c\u4f4e\u4e0b\u3057\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u7269\u4fa1\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u304c\u982d\u6253\u3061\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u305d\u3057\u3066\u3001\u540d\u76ee\u9577\u671f\u91d1\u5229\u3060\u3051\u306f\u3001\u4e0a\u6607\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u300c\u5287\u7684\u306a\u751f\u7523\u6027\u306e\u5411\u4e0a\u3067\u3001\u56fd\u6c11\u306e\u6240\u5f97\u3092\u5897\u3084\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u8996\u70b9\u304b\u3089\u898b\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5618\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

1\u4eba\u5f53\u305f\u308a\u540d\u76eeGNI\u6210\u9577\u7387\u306e\u4f38\u3073\u306f\u920d\u5316\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u30d7\u30e9\u30b9\u570f\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u307e\u3042\u3001\u7d66\u6599\u306f\u5897\u3048\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d66\u6599\u306e\u4f38\u3073\u306f\u6291\u3048\u3089\u308c\u7269\u4fa1\u4e0a\u6607\u304c\u5927\u304d\u304f\u300c\u50cd\u3051\u3069\u308f\u304c\u66ae\u3089\u3057\u826f\u304f\u306a\u3089\u305a\u300d\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u30fb\u30fb\u30fb<\/p>\n

This is Baseline case.<\/font><\/p>\n

Baseline scenario did not mean the lowest limit and in face, economy and finance got worse than estimated.<\/font><\/p>\n

In this case, nominal GNI per person will reduce than now in 2020FY.<\/font><\/p>\n

But CPI will get higher.<\/font><\/p>\n

In 2025FY, nominal GNI per person will get lower, but CPI will stop jumping.<\/font><\/p>\n

And long-term interest rate will only jump.<\/font><\/p>\n

From the view of \u201cProductivity will get drastically higher and we increase income of nations\u201c, this will not be a lie because our salary will get litter higher.<\/font><\/p>\n

CPI will get higher and higher and our life will not be better.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"chart6\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font>Contact Us<\/font><\/a>\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n

These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n

Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u884c\u60c5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u6ee1\u8db3\u60a8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u6982\u4e0d\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u76c8\u4e8f\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n

\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u8bbf\u95ee\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u518d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u672c10\u5e74\u50b5\u5229\u56de\u308a\u30fb\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u8aee\u554f\u4f1a\u8b70\u3001\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u306e\u7d4c\u6e08\u8ca1\u653f\u306b\u95a2\u3059\u308b\u8a66\u7b97\u30fb2020\u5e74\u4ee3\u306b\u306f\u6240\u5f97\u306f\u5897\u3048\u308b\u304c\u3001\u7269\u4fa1\u3082\u4e0a\u304c\u308b\u3002\u3082\u3063\u3068\u3082\u4e0a\u304c\u308a\u305d\u3046\u306a\u306e\u306f\u91d1\u5229 CEFP, the estimation of finance and ec […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,12],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-13647","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-report","category-japanese-government-bonds-10-year"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13647","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=13647"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13647\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":13648,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/13647\/revisions\/13648"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=13647"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=13647"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=13647"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}