{"id":14252,"date":"2017-12-03T08:30:00","date_gmt":"2017-12-02T23:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=14252"},"modified":"2017-12-01T19:41:46","modified_gmt":"2017-12-01T10:41:46","slug":"%e6%97%a5%e7%b5%8c%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e5%b9%b4%e6%9c%ab%e7%b5%82%e5%80%a4%e6%83%b3%e5%ae%9a%e3%83%bb%e3%80%8c%e6%8e%89%e5%b0%be%e3%81%ae%e4%b8%80%e6%8c%af%e3%80%8d%e3%81%aa%e3%82%89%e3%81%b024000","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=14252","title":{"rendered":"\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u672b\u7d42\u5024\u60f3\u5b9a\u30fb\u300c\u6389\u5c3e\u306e\u4e00\u632f\u300d\u306a\u3089\u307024000\u5186\u8d85\u3082\u3042\u308a\u30012015\u5e74\u306b\u5023\u3046\u306a\u308921800\u5186\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><font color=\"#804040\" size=\"4\"><strong>\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u672b\u7d42\u5024\u60f3\u5b9a\u30fb\u300c\u6389\u5c3e\u306e\u4e00\u632f\u300d\u306a\u3089\u307024000\u5186\u8d85\u3082\u3042\u308a\u30012015\u5e74\u306b\u5023\u3046\u306a\u308921800\u5186\uff1f<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#804040\" size=\"4\"><strong>Estimation of N225 yearly close; rally may reach 24000yen over or the price may fall 21800yen like 2015?<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#804040\" size=\"4\"><strong>\u65e5\u7ecf225\u5e74\u672b\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\u7684\u9884\u4f30\u3002\u53cd\u5f39\u53ef\u80fd\u5728\u8fbe\u523024000\u65e5\u5143\u6216\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u4e0b\u8dcc21800\u65e5\u5143\u50cf2015\u5e74\uff1f<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>\u65e5\u7d4c\u65b0\u805e\u30fb2017\/12\/1\u4ed8\u671d\u520a21\u9762<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u5e2b\u8d70\u76f8\u5834\u3001\u682a\u5148\u9ad8\u89b3\u5f37\u304f\u30fb\u8a3c\u5238\u30fb\u904b\u7528\u4f1a\u793e \u597d\u8abf\u306a\u4f01\u696d\u696d\u7e3e\u304c\u652f\u3048\u30fb\u6765\u5e74\u306f25000\u5186\u4e88\u60f3\u591a\u304f\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u306e\u5e74\u672b\u307e\u3067\u306b\u60f3\u5b9a\u3068\u306a\u308b24000\u5186\u4ed8\u8fd1\u307e\u3067\u306e\u5230\u9054\u3068\u306a\u308b\u3068\u3001\u591a\u304f\u304c\u4e88\u60f3\u3059\u308b25000\u5186\u307e\u3067\u306e\u30ce\u30ea\u4ee3\u306f\u3042\u3068\u5c11\u3057\u3002<\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?m=20171111\" target=\"_blank\">\u300c\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u6ce2\u52d5\u8a08\u7b97\u30fb1989\u5e74\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u3092\u306a\u305e\u308b\u306a\u3089\u3001\u5927\u5929\u4e95\u306f27000\u5186\u4ee5\u4e0b\uff1f\uff1f\u300d(2017\/11\/11)<\/a>\u3068\u3082\u5831\u544a\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">Nikkei Newspaper in 12\/1\/2017 morning edition reports \u201c<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">\u201cStock company says December market will be great rally; it based on well running on corporate performance; most says the price will reach 25000yen over in next year.\u201d<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">If the price will reach 24000yen around at the end of this year, there is only 1000 yen to reach 25000yen.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">We also reported \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?m=20171111\" target=\"_blank\">NIKKEI 225 wave calculation; following the price movement in 1989, major peak will be lower than 27000yen\u201d in 11\/11\/2017.<\/a><\/font><\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>1950\u5e74\u304b\u30892017\u5e74\u306e1\u6708\u304b\u308911\u6708\u307e\u3067\u306e\u308d\u3046\u305d\u304f\u8db3\u3092\u4e26\u3079\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u30d2\u30b2\u3001\u4e0b\u30d2\u30b2\u5171\u306b\u6b8b\u3057\u305f1955\u5e74\u30011975\u5e74\u30011979\u5e74\u30011983\u5e74\u30011999\u5e74\u30012015\u5e74\u306a\u3069\u304c2017\u5e74\u3068\u4f3c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>11\u6708\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u304b\u3089\u306e12\u6708\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u307e\u3067\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u7387\u306f\u3001\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c108%\u3001101%\u3001102%\u3001106%\u3001102%\u300196%\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u76f4\u8fd1\u306e2015\u5e74\u3060\u3051\u30a2\u30f3\u30c0\u30fc\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30e0\u3057\u305f\u3060\u3051\u3067\u57fa\u672c\u7684\u306b\u306f\u300c\u6389\u5c3e\u306e\u4e00\u632f\u300d\u306e\u671f\u5f85\u304c\u3082\u3066\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">We use from January to November data from 1950 to 2017 and form candle sticks.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">2017 figure is similar to 1955, 1975, 1979, 1983, 1999 and 2015.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">Each of rate of increase is 108%, 101%, 102%, 106%, 102% and 96%.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">Almost all cases were rally except 2015 case.<\/font> <\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/chart1_conv.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"chart1_conv\" style=\"border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px\" border=\"0\" alt=\"chart1_conv\" src=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/chart1_conv_thumb.png\" width=\"644\" height=\"389\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>1950\u5e74\u304b\u30892016\u5e74\u306e1\u6708\u30aa\u30fc\u30d7\u30f3\u304b\u308911\u6708\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u307e\u3067\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u7387\u3092\u6a2a\u8ef8\u30011950\u5e74\u304b\u30892016\u5e74\u306e11\u6708\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u304b\u308912\u6708\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u307e\u3067\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u7387\u3092\u7e26\u8ef8\u3068\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6a19\u6e96\u56de\u5e30\u7dda\u304c\u53f3\u80a9\u3042\u304c\u308a\u3068\u306a\u3063\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u30e2\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30e0\u306e\u7dad\u6301\u3001\u3064\u307e\u308a\u300c\u6389\u5c3e\u306e\u4e00\u632f\u300d\u304c\u8ffd\u8a8d\u3067\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2017\u5e74\u306e1\u6708\u30aa\u30fc\u30d7\u30f3\u304b\u308911\u6708\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u307e\u3067\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u7387\u306f117%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u7684\u306a\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b9\u304c\u9069\u5fdc\u3055\u308c\u308b\u306823070 \u5186\uff0822724.96 * 102%\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2015\u5e74\u76f8\u5f53\u306e\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b9\u3068\u306a\u308b\u306a\u3089\u300121863\u5186(22724.96 * 96%\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u5b9f\u7e3e\u306e1\u03c3\u3068\u306a\u308b\u300c\u6389\u5c3e\u306e\u4e00\u632f\u300d\u3092\u9069\u7528\u3059\u308b\u306824280\u5186(22724.96 * 107%\uff09\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3001\u5b9f\u7e3e\u7684\u306b\u306f\u7d0d\u5f97\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3042\u304a\u308a\u305f\u3044\u8a33\u3067\u3067\u306f\u3042\u308a\u307e\u305b\u3093\u304c\u30012\u03c3\u306f24476\u5186\u3001-2\u03c3\u306f20655\u5186\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u5b9f\u7e3e\u306b\u7167\u3089\u305b\u3070\u300c2\u4e07\u5186\u306f\u5207\u3089\u3093\u3088\u306a\u3001\u3076\u3063\u98db\u3073\u30672\u4e075\u5343\u5186\u3082\u3042\u308a\u304b\u306a\u300d\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u4eca\u306e\u3068\u3053\u308d\u300c20000\u5186\u306f\u5e95\u5805\u3044\u300d\u3068\u3082\u8a00\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">Horizontal is the performance from Jan. to Nov. (1950 &#8211; 2016) and vertical is the performance from Nov. to Dec.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">Approximate curve is growing and we can know \u201cDec. performance was good!\u201d<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">From Jan. to Nov. in 2017, rate of increase was 117%.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">Applying the past average performance, the price will reach 23070yen \uff0822724.96 * 102%\uff09 until December close.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">And 1 sigma performance is 24280yen (22724.96 * 107%\uff09 and lower than this price will be reasonable.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">Applying 2015 performance, the price will fall 21863yen (22724.96 * 96%\uff09.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">2 sigma is 24476yen and -2 sigma is 20655yen.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">On the other hand, 20000yen around will work as stable support.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/chart2_conv.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"chart2_conv\" style=\"border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; background-image: none; border-bottom-width: 0px; padding-top: 0px; padding-left: 0px; display: inline; padding-right: 0px; border-top-width: 0px\" border=\"0\" alt=\"chart2_conv\" src=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2017\/12\/chart2_conv_thumb.png\" width=\"644\" height=\"421\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?page_id=41\">Contact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?page_id=41\"><font color=\"#408080\">Contact Us<\/font><\/a><font color=\"#408080\">\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#408080\">Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n<p>\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u884c\u60c5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?page_id=41\">Contact Us<\/a>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u6ee1\u8db3\u60a8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u6982\u4e0d\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u76c8\u4e8f\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u8bbf\u95ee\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u518d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u672b\u7d42\u5024\u60f3\u5b9a\u30fb\u300c\u6389\u5c3e\u306e\u4e00\u632f\u300d\u306a\u3089\u307024000\u5186\u8d85\u3082\u3042\u308a\u30012015\u5e74\u306b\u5023\u3046\u306a\u308921800\u5186\uff1f Estimation of N225 yearly close; rally may reach 24000yen ov [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-14252","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-report","category-nikkei-225"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14252","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=14252"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14252\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":14253,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14252\/revisions\/14253"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=14252"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=14252"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=14252"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}