{"id":15186,"date":"2018-03-28T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2018-03-27T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=15186"},"modified":"2018-03-26T12:24:36","modified_gmt":"2018-03-26T03:24:36","slug":"%e6%97%a5%e7%b5%8c%e3%83%b4%e3%82%a7%e3%83%aa%e3%82%bf%e3%82%b9%e4%bb%8a%e9%80%b1%e5%8f%b7%e3%80%8c2028%e5%b9%b4%e3%81%ae%e6%97%a5%e7%b5%8c%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e4%ba%88%e6%83%b345300%e5%86%86%e3%80%81","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=15186","title":{"rendered":"\u65e5\u7d4c\u30f4\u30a7\u30ea\u30bf\u30b9\u4eca\u9031\u53f7\u300c2028\u5e74\u306e\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u4e88\u60f345300\u5186\u3001\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u4e88\u60f3116\u5186\u300d\u30fb\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u3068\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\u95a2\u4fc2\u306b\u3066\u3089\u3059\u3068\u3001\u4f55\u3089\u304b\u306e\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u308c\u3070\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u6c34\u6e96\u3067\u306f\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u7d4c\u30f4\u30a7\u30ea\u30bf\u30b9\u4eca\u9031\u53f7\u300c2028\u5e74\u306e\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u4e88\u60f345300\u5186\u3001\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u4e88\u60f3116\u5186\u300d\u30fb\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u3068\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\u95a2\u4fc2\u306b\u3066\u3089\u3059\u3068\u3001\u4f55\u3089\u304b\u306e\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u308c\u3070\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u6c34\u6e96\u3067\u306f\uff1f<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

Nikkei Veritas article; \u201cEstimation of 2028, N225 will be 45300yen and USDJPY will be 116yen\u201d; something of bubble will pop, this scenario will come true.<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\u636e\u672c\u5468\u65e5\u7ecfVeritas\uff1a\u4f30\u8ba12028\u5e74\uff0c\u65e5\u7ecf225\u5c06\u4e3a45300\u65e5\u5143\uff0c\u7f8e\u5143\/\u65e5\u5143\u5c06\u4e3a116\u65e5\u5143\u3002\u5982\u679c\u4e00\u4e9b\u6ce1\u6cab\u4f1a\u5f39\u51fa\uff0c\u5c31\u8fd9\u79cd\u60c5\u51b5\u5c06\u5b9e\u73b0\u3002<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u65e5\u7d4c\u30f4\u30a7\u30ea\u30bf\u30b9\u4eca\u9031\u53f73P\u306b\u300c2028\u5e74\u306e\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u4e88\u60f345300\u5186\u3001\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u5e73\u5747\u4e88\u60f3116\u5186\u300d\u3068\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d50\u8ad6\u306f\u3001\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u3068\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\u95a2\u4fc2\u306b\u7167\u3089\u3059\u3068\u3001\u4f55\u3089\u304b\u306e\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u308c\u3070\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u6c34\u6e96\u3067\u306f\uff1f\u3068\u8003\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3069\u3061\u3089\u304b\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u3070\u3001116\u5186\u306f\u9054\u6210\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u6c34\u6e96\u3067\u3059\u304c\u300145300\u5186\u306e\u65b9\u304c\u96e3\u3057\u305d\u3046\u3060\u3068\u307f\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

Nikkei Veritas article says \u201cEstimation of 2028, N225 will be 45300yen and USDJPY will be 116yen\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

Our conclusion is something of bubble will pop, this scenario will come true.<\/font><\/p>\n

We think the possibility of \u201c116yen\u201d will be natural rather than \u201c45300yen\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u6c34\u6e96\u304c\u9054\u6210\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u6c34\u6e96\u304b\u3001\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u9031\u8db3\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u3068\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u306e\u9031\u8db3\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u3092\u4f7f\u3063\u3066\u8abf\u67fb\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

1971-2018\u306e\u73fe\u5728\u307e\u3067\u3001\u7e26\u8ef8\u306b\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u3001\u6a2a\u8ef8\u8ef8\u306b\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u3092\u3068\u308a\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5148\u9031\u306eUSDJPY\u306f104.726\u5186\u3001\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u7d42\u5024\u306f20617.86\u5186\u3060\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u300cNow\u300d<\/p>\n

\u306e\u4f4d\u7f6e\u306b\u30d7\u30ed\u30c3\u30c8\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3055\u3089\u306b\u8fd1\u4f3c\u66f2\u7dda\u3092\u52a0\u3048\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u3053\u3067\u308f\u304b\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001USDJPY\u304c140\u5186\u4ee5\u4e0b\u3001\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u304c20000\u5186\u5272\u308c\u306e\u671f\u9593\u306e\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u3092\u8fd1\u4f3c\u66f2\u7dda\u306e\u4e0b\u5074\u3067\u904e\u3054\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

We analyze using by N225 and USDJPY weekly close price.<\/font><\/p>\n

We plot USDJPY as vertical and N225 as horizontal from 1971 to 2018.<\/font><\/p>\n

Last week close was 104.728yen (USDJPY) and 20617.86yen (N225) and it is \u201cNow\u201d point.<\/font><\/p>\n

And we add approximate curve.<\/font><\/p>\n

We can know almost points exist lower than 140yen (USDJPY) and 20000yen (N225) and these points were lower than red line.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"chart1_conv\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u8fd1\u4f3c\u66f2\u7dda\u304c\u30cf\u30c3\u30ad\u30ea\u3068\u30ec\u30b8\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30b9\u3060\u3068\u308f\u304b\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u300110\u5e74\u3054\u3068\u306b\u66f8\u304d\u76f4\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30ec\u30b8\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u3066\u3044\u305f\u671f\u9593\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u306e\u671f\u9593\uff08\u30c1\u30e7\u30c3\u30d4\u30ea\u3067\u3059\u304c\uff09\u3068\u6700\u8fd1\u3092\u9664\u304d\u73cd\u3057\u3044\u73fe\u8c61\u3060\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u8d64\u7dda\u306e\u5916\u5074\u306f\u5b9f\u529b\u4ee5\u4e0a\u306e\u30aa\u30fc\u30d0\u30fc\u30d0\u30ea\u30e5\u30fc\u3060\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3055\u3089\u306b\u8fd1\u4f3c\u66f2\u7dda\u304b\u3089\u308f\u304b\u308b\u306e\u306f\u30012018-2008\u5e74\u306e\u9593\u304c\u682a\u4fa1\u3068\u70ba\u66ff\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u304c\u6df1\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u3002<\/p>\n

1998-2008\u5e74\u306f\u70ba\u66ff\u6c34\u6e96\u306b\u95a2\u4fc2\u306a\u304f\u3001\u682a\u4fa1\u304cUPDOWN\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u304c\u3001\u3053\u306e10\u5e74\u306f\u682a\u4fa1\u3068\u70ba\u66ff\u3068\u306e\u95a2\u9023\u304c\u6df1\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

We plot in every each 10 years.<\/font><\/p>\n

Cutting red line was rare occasions and they were only bubble period and now.<\/font><\/p>\n

This occasion mean cutting red line was overvalued.<\/font><\/p>\n

Moreover, we can know USDJPY and N225 relation is closer now.<\/font><\/p>\n

From 1998 to 2008, approximate curve is flat and this means there was no relation stock price and FX.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"chart2_conv\"<\/a>\"chart3_conv\"<\/a>\"chart4_conv\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2018-2008\u5e74\u306e\u5024\u3068\u3059\u3079\u3066\u306e\u8fd1\u4f3c\u66f2\u7dda\u3068\u76ee\u6a19\u5024\u3092\u5165\u308c\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

2028\u5e74\u3078\u306e\u76ee\u6a19\u306b\u4e00\u756a\u8fd1\u3044\u306e\u306f\u30011998-2008\u5e74\u306b\u304b\u3051\u3066\u306e\u5024\u52d5\u304d\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3082\u3061\u308d\u3093\u3001\u76ee\u6a19\u3092\u9054\u6210\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306b\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u30ec\u30b8\u30b9\u30bf\u30f3\u30b9\u3068\u306a\u3063\u305f\u5168\u671f\u9593\u306e\u8fd1\u4f3c\u66f2\u7dda\u3092\u3053\u3048\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u3082\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u73fe\u5728\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u4e00\u756a\u306e\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u306f\u3001\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u5ef6\u9577\u3068\u306a\u308b2018-2008\u5e74\u306e\u8fd1\u4f3c\u66f2\u7dda\u3092\u306a\u305e\u308b\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8d64\u7dda\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u305f\u3081\u3001\u306a\u3093\u3089\u304b\u306e\u30aa\u30fc\u30d0\u30fc\u30d0\u30ea\u30e5\u30fc\u304c\u3042\u308b\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

We plot all data on the latest chart.<\/font><\/p>\n

The closest target is 1998-2008 price movement.<\/font><\/p>\n

Of course, the price need to cut the red line.<\/font><\/p>\n

Following the latest trend will be reasonable.<\/font><\/p>\n

And there need something of overvalued.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"chart5_conv\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u3064\u307e\u308a45300\u5186\u3092\u9054\u6210\u3059\u308b\u306a\u3089\u3001USDJPY\u306f185\u5186\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3001\u304b\u3064\u4f55\u3089\u304b\u306e\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3057\u305f\u72b6\u6cc1\u3067\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u3060\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3044\u304b\u304c\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\uff1f<\/p>\n

\u3082\u3061\u308d\u3093\u3001\u70ba\u66ff\u304c116\u5186\u3001\u682a\u4fa1\u304c\u73fe\u5728\u3068\u5909\u308f\u3089\u305a20000\u5186\u7a0b\u5ea6\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u3082\u5168\u304f\u30ca\u30c1\u30e5\u30e9\u30eb\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u305d\u308c\u3068\u3082\u3001\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u3068\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\u95a2\u4fc2\u306f\u5d29\u308c\u53bb\u3063\u3066\u65b0\u305f\u306a\u95a2\u4fc2\u304c\u751f\u307e\u308c\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\uff1f<\/p>\n

If N225 will reach 4530yen, USDJPY will reach 185yen around and something of bubble will come true.<\/font><\/p>\n

And 116yen will be so and stock price may be as same as now.<\/font><\/p>\n

Or new kind of relation may reveal.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font>Contact Us<\/font><\/a>\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n

These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n

Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u884c\u60c5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u6ee1\u8db3\u60a8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u6982\u4e0d\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u76c8\u4e8f\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n

\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u8bbf\u95ee\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u518d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u7d4c\u30f4\u30a7\u30ea\u30bf\u30b9\u4eca\u9031\u53f7\u300c2028\u5e74\u306e\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u4e88\u60f345300\u5186\u3001\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u4e88\u60f3116\u5186\u300d\u30fb\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u3068\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\u95a2\u4fc2\u306b\u3066\u3089\u3059\u3068\u3001\u4f55\u3089\u304b\u306e\u30d0\u30d6\u30eb\u304c\u8d77\u304d\u308c\u3070\u53ef\u80fd\u306a\u6c34\u6e96\u3067\u306f\uff1f Nikkei Veritas article; \u201cEsti […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,3,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15186","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-usdjpy","category-report","category-nikkei-225"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15186","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15186"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15186\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15187,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15186\/revisions\/15187"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15186"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15186"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15186"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}