{"id":15263,"date":"2018-04-03T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2018-04-02T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=15263"},"modified":"2018-04-02T20:30:02","modified_gmt":"2018-04-02T11:30:02","slug":"%e6%97%a5%e7%b5%8c%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e5%b9%b4%e8%b6%b3%e3%81%ae%e5%88%86%e6%9e%90%ef%bc%888%ef%bc%89%e3%83%bb1950%e5%b9%b4%e4%bb%a5%e9%99%8d%e3%83%bb6%e6%9c%88%e3%82%af%e3%83%ad%e3%83%bc%e3%82%ba","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=15263","title":{"rendered":"\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u8db3\u306e\u5206\u6790\uff088\uff09\u30fb1950\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u30fb6\u6708\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u307e\u3067\u306b\u5e74\u521d\u6765\u9ad8\u5024\u3092\u3068\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3068\u5e74\u5f8c\u534a\u306e\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b9\u306f\u60aa\u3044\u30fb\u306a\u3093\u3068\u306a\u304f2007\u5e74\u306b\u3082\u4f3c\u3066\u304d\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3082\u6c17\u306b\u306a\u308b"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u8db3\u306e\u5206\u6790\uff088\uff09\u30fb1950\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u30fb6\u6708\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u307e\u3067\u306b\u5e74\u521d\u6765\u9ad8\u5024\u3092\u3068\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3068\u5e74\u5f8c\u534a\u306e\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b9\u306f\u60aa\u3044\u30fb\u306a\u3093\u3068\u306a\u304f2007\u5e74\u306b\u3082\u4f3c\u3066\u304d\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3082\u6c17\u306b\u306a\u308b<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

NIKKEI 225 annual No.8; After 1950; if the close price will not take new high before June, performance of the latter half of the year was worse; Now is similar to 2007?<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u7ecf225\u3002\u5e74K\u7684\u5206\u6790\uff088\uff09\u3002\u57281950\u5e74\u4ee5\u540e\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u6536\u76d8\u4ef7\u683c\u4e0d\u4f1a\u57286\u6708\u4e4b\u524d\u91c7\u53d6\u65b0\u9ad8\uff0c\u5c31\u5728\u90a3\u4e9b\u5e74\u4e0b\u534a\u5e74\u7684\u8868\u73b0\u662f\u6ca1\u6709\u597d\u3002\u73b0\u5728\u548c2007\u5e74\u7c7b\u4f3c\u3002<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u672c\u65e5\u306f\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u6708\u8db3\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d50\u8ad6\u306f1950\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u30013\u6708\u306b\u5e74\u521d\u6765\u5b89\u5024\u3092\u3064\u3051\u305f\u5e74\u306f\u30016\u6708\u307e\u3067\u306b\u65b0\u9ad8\u5024\u3092\u53d6\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3001\u5e74\u5f8c\u534a\u306f\u9cf4\u304b\u305a\u98db\u3070\u305a\u3001\u3082\u3057\u304f\u306f\u4e0b\u843d\u3057\u3084\u3059\u304f\u306a\u308b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3064\u307e\u308a\u30016\u6708\u307e\u3067\u306b\u65b0\u9ad8\u5024\u304c\u306a\u3051\u308c\u3070\u30012\u6708\u9ad8\u5024\u304c\u5e74\u521d\u6765\u9ad8\u5024\u306b\u306a\u308b\u304b\u3001\u5e74\u672b\u306e\u4e0a\u3052\u5e74\u521d\u6765\u9ad8\u5024\u306b\u306a\u308b\u304b\u3001\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30a4\u30e1\u30fc\u30b8\u3002<\/p>\n

Today is about N225 monthly.<\/font><\/p>\n

Our conclusion is after 1950, when year low was taken in March and not taking year high before June, performance of the latter half of the year was worse.<\/font><\/p>\n

In other word, if new high will not take before June, our main scenario is February high make year high or rally at end of the year will be year high.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

1950\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u30013\u6708\u306b\u65b0\u5b89\u5024\u3092\u3068\u3063\u305f\u30d1\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u306f18\u901a\u308a\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u305d\u306e\u3046\u3061\u4f8b\u5916\u3068\u306a\u308b\u30014\u30015\u30016\u6708\u3067\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b9\u304c\u60aa\u304b\u3063\u305f\u306b\u3082\u95a2\u308f\u3089\u305a\u3001\u5e74\u672b\u4ed8\u8fd1\u3067\u4e0a\u3052\u305f4\u901a\u308a\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

4\u30d1\u30bf\u30fc\u30f3\u3067\u3082\u3001\u5e74\u5f8c\u534a\u306e3\u6708\u306e\u9ad8\u5024\u5b89\u5024\u306e\u629c\u3051\u3092\u76ee\u5b89\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u691c\u77e5\u3067\u304d\u308b\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76f4\u8fd1\u3067\u601d\u3044\u51fa\u3055\u308c\u308b\u306e\u306f2007\u5e74\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

2007\u5e74\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u4eca\u5e74\u3068\u540c\u3058\u3088\u3046\u306b2\u6708\u306b\u9ad8\u5024\u3092\u3064\u3051\u30013\u6708\u306b\u5b89\u5024\u3092\u3064\u3051\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3001\u305d\u3057\u30666\u30017\u6708\u3068\u65b0\u9ad8\u5024\u3092\u3064\u3051\u3089\u308c\u305a\u3001\u5e74\u5f8c\u534a\u306f\u5b89\u5024\u3092\u66f4\u65b0\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304d\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

After 1950, there were 18 patterns taking year low in March.<\/font><\/p>\n

And exception patterns are 4 cases.<\/font><\/p>\n

In such cases, we can capture the condition changing phase on the chart; see cutting March high or low.<\/font><\/p>\n

We can remind 2007 case.<\/font><\/p>\n

At that time, the year high was taken in February and year low was taken in March.<\/font><\/p>\n

And the price could not take new high in June and July.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"1953_conv\"<\/a>\"1954_conv\"<\/a>\"1955_conv\"<\/a>\"1965_conv\"<\/a>\"1979_conv\"<\/a>\"1980_conv\"<\/a>\"1981_conv\"<\/a>\"1982_conv\"<\/a>\"1990_conv\"<\/a>\"1992_conv\"<\/a>\"1995_conv\"<\/a>\"1996_conv\"<\/a>\"2001_conv\"<\/a>\"2003_conv\"<\/a>\"2007_conv\"<\/a>\"2008_conv\"<\/a>\"2009_conv\"<\/a>\"2011_conv\"<\/a>\"2018_conv\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font>Contact Us<\/font><\/a>\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n

These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n

Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u884c\u60c5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u6ee1\u8db3\u60a8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u6982\u4e0d\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u76c8\u4e8f\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n

\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u8bbf\u95ee\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u518d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u5e74\u8db3\u306e\u5206\u6790\uff088\uff09\u30fb1950\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u30fb6\u6708\u30af\u30ed\u30fc\u30ba\u307e\u3067\u306b\u5e74\u521d\u6765\u9ad8\u5024\u3092\u3068\u3089\u306a\u3044\u3068\u5e74\u5f8c\u534a\u306e\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b9\u306f\u60aa\u3044\u30fb\u306a\u3093\u3068\u306a\u304f2007\u5e74\u306b\u3082\u4f3c\u3066\u304d\u3066\u3044\u308b\u306e\u3082\u6c17\u306b\u306a\u308b NIKKEI 225 annual No.8; After […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15263","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-report","category-nikkei-225"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15263","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15263"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15263\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":17258,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15263\/revisions\/17258"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15263"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15263"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15263"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}