{"id":15645,"date":"2018-05-20T07:30:00","date_gmt":"2018-05-19T22:30:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=15645"},"modified":"2018-05-19T18:17:01","modified_gmt":"2018-05-19T09:17:01","slug":"%e3%83%89%e3%83%ab%e5%86%86%e4%b8%ad%e9%95%b7%e6%9c%9f%e3%83%bb%e5%8f%8d%e7%9c%81%e3%81%a8%e5%8e%9f%e5%9b%a0%e8%bf%bd%e6%b1%82%ef%bc%88%ef%bc%91%ef%bc%89%e3%83%bb10%e5%b9%b4%e5%82%b5%e3%81%ae%e6%97%a5","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=15645","title":{"rendered":"\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u30fb\u53cd\u7701\u3068\u539f\u56e0\u8ffd\u6c42\uff08\uff11\uff09\u30fb10\u5e74\u50b5\u306e\u65e5\u7c73\u91d1\u5229\u5dee\u7e2e\u5c0f\u306e\u5f8c\u306b\u5186\u9ad8\u304c\u3084\u3063\u3066\u304d\u305f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u30fb\u53cd\u7701\u3068\u539f\u56e0\u8ffd\u6c42\uff08\uff11\uff09\u30fb10\u5e74\u50b5\u306e\u65e5\u7c73\u91d1\u5229\u5dee\u7e2e\u5c0f\u306e\u5f8c\u306b\u5186\u9ad8\u304c\u3084\u3063\u3066\u304d\u305f<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

USDJPY mid-to-long term; Self\u2010examination and reason (1); After interest differential between Japan and U.S. was expanded, Yen got stronger.<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\u7f8e\u5143\/\u65e5\u5143\u3002\u4e2d\u671f\u548c\u957f\u671f\u5206\u6790\u3002\u81ea\u6211\u53cd\u7701\u548c\u539f\u56e0\u8ffd\u6c42\uff08\uff11\uff09\u65e5\u672c\u548c\u7f8e\u56fd\u4e4b\u95f4\u7684\u5229\u7387\u5dee\u540e\u6269\u5927\uff0c \u65e5\u5143\u53d8\u5f97\u66f4\u5f3a\u5927\u4e86\u3002<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

Retar.jp\u3067\u306f\u3001\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306e\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u3067\u9593\u9055\u3044\u3092\u72af\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30e1\u30ab\u30cb\u30ab\u30eb\u306a\u30c8\u30ec\u30fc\u30c9\u3092\u5fb9\u5e95\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u4f55\u304b\u8db3\u308a\u306a\u3044\u30d4\u30fc\u30b9\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3068\u304d\u306b\u76f8\u5834\u306f\u601d\u308f\u306c\u65b9\u5411\u306b\u52d5\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8a00\u3044\u65b9\u3092\u304b\u3048\u308b\u306a\u3089\u3001\u3057\u3070\u3089\u304f\u5927\u4eba\u3057\u304b\u3063\u305f\u5974\u304c\u66b4\u308c\u3060\u3059\u3088\u3046\u306a\u3082\u306e\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u539f\u56e0\u3092\u5fb9\u5e95\u8ffd\u53ca\u3057\u3066\u3001\u65b0\u305f\u306a\u5e38\u8b58\u3078\u3068\u30a2\u30c3\u30d7\u30c7\u30fc\u30c8\u3057\u3066\u3044\u304f\u306e\u304c\u6b63\u3057\u3044\u3068\u8003\u3048\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u306f\u65b0\u3057\u3044\u5e38\u8b58\u3078\u5909\u308f\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u304c\u3001\u672c\u65e5\u306e\u7d50\u8ad6\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65b0\u5e38\u8b58\u3067\u8003\u3048\u308b\u306a\u3089\u3001100\u5186\u5272\u308c\u306f\u96e3\u3057\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n

Under these report, we were wrong.<\/font><\/p>\n

We use mechanical trade but sometimes unknown condition change.<\/font><\/p>\n

In other word, forgotten factor becomes factor.<\/font><\/p>\n

We need to survey why we wrong and renew our common sense.<\/font><\/p>\n

Applying our new common sense, cutting 100yen will be difficult.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u300c\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u9031\u8db3\u30fb\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u306e\u5186\u9ad8\u958b\u59cb\u30fb\u6625\u307e\u3067\u306b\u7d20\u6575\u306a\u58f2\u308a\u5834\u304c\u3084\u3063\u3066\u304f\u308b\u306f\u305a\u300d(2018\/2\/16)<\/a><\/p>\n

\u300c\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u30fb\u30e1\u30a4\u30f3\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u306f\u4e0a\u304c\u3063\u3066\u304f\u308c\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u30fb1998\/11\u30012003\/04\u30012007\/09\u306b\u5023\u3046\u306a\u3089\u6708\u521d\u3081\u304b\u3089\u96f0\u56f2\u6c17\u306f\u304b\u308f\u308b\u300d(2018\/4\/27)<\/a><\/p>\n

\u300c\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u3067\u306f\u30d0\u30ea\u30d0\u30ea\u306e\u5186\u9ad8\u6d3e\u3067\u3059\u3002\u300d(2018\/5\/13)<\/a><\/p>\n

We reported \u201cUSDJPY Weekly; Yen will get stronger in mid-to-long term; Great selling opportunity will come by spring\u201d in 2\/16\/2018.<\/a><\/font><\/p>\n

We reported \u201cUSDJPY mid-to-long term; Our main view is now is selling opportunity; following 11\/1998, 04\/2003 and 09\/2007, a new trend will come at the beginning of the next month\u201d in 4\/27\/2018.<\/a><\/font><\/p>\n

We reported \u201cYen will be get stronger but there need more time for perfect sell\u201d in 5\/13\/2018.<\/a><\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u9593\u9055\u3048\u305f\u539f\u56e0\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8003\u3048\u3089\u308c\u308b\u306e\u304c\u65e5\u7c73\u91d1\u5229\u5dee\u3060\u3068\u307f\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8ca1\u52d9\u7701\u767a\u8868\u306e10\u5e74\u50b5\u306e\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u3068T note\u306e\u91d1\u5229\u5dee\u3068\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8abf\u67fb\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

100\u5186\u5272\u308c\u306b\u306a\u308b\u306e\u306f\u300110\u5e74\u50b5\u306e\u91d1\u5229\u304c\u6025\u901f\u306b\u4e0b\u304c\u3063\u305f\u3042\u3068\u306e\u304a\u8a71\u3057\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002\uff08\u30aa\u30ec\u30f3\u30b8\u5f8c\u3001\u8d64\uff09<\/p>\n

The reason why we wrong is interest differential between Japan and U.S.<\/font><\/p>\n

Today, we compare JGB 10years and T note.<\/font><\/p>\n

We can know when the price went below 100yen, spread was sharply down before it.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"chart1_conv\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u300c\u3069\u3053\u304b\u3089\u304c\u5186\u9ad8\u306e\u30c8\u30ea\u30ac\u30fc\u3068\u306a\u308b\u306e\u304b\u300d\u3068\u8003\u3048\u305f\u3068\u304d\u3001\u65e5\u7c73\u91d1\u5229\u5dee\u304c2.5%\u4ee5\u4e0b\u306b\u4f4e\u4e0b\u3057\u305f\u3068\u304d\u304b\u3089\u8003\u3048\u308c\u3070\u3044\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

Retar.jp\u3067\u306f2.5%\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u305f\u6642\u70b9\uff08\u304a\u304a\u3088\u305d\u5e74\u521d\uff09\u304b\u3089\u3001\u5e38\u8b58\u306e\u5909\u66f4\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

We can see lower than 2.5% will be \u201cYen Long\u201d trigger.<\/font><\/p>\n

We need to change our mind at the beginning of this year.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u300c\u65e5\u9280\u306e\u300c\u9577\u77ed\u91d1\u5229\u64cd\u4f5c\u4ed8\u304d\u91cf\u7684\u30fb\u8cea\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u7de9\u548c\u300d\u304c\u30012016\/09\/21\u304b\u3089\u5b9f\u65bd\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u8a00\u3044\u63db\u3048\u308b\u3068\u300c\u9244\u677f\u5929\u5e95\u4ed8\u30a4\u30f3\u30d5\u30ec\u306b\u30ca\u30ec\u30ca\u30ec\u76f8\u5834\u64cd\u7e26\u300d\u3002\u76f8\u5834\u306f\u81ea\u7136\u306e\u6442\u7406\u3002\u5927\u91d1\u6301\u3061\u306e\u76f8\u5834\u64cd\u7e26\u3067\u3042\u3063\u3066\u3082\u3001\u6700\u5f8c\u306f\u30de\u30fc\u30b1\u30c3\u30c8\u306b\u52dd\u3066\u306a\u3044\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3059\u3002\u300d(2018\/2\/01)<\/a><\/p>\n

\u5927\u91d1\u6301\u3061\u304c\u65b9\u91dd\u3092\u5909\u3048\u3066\u3001\u91d1\u5229\u5dee\u304c\u7e2e\u307f\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5f8c\u306b\u5186\u9ad8\u304c\u3084\u3063\u3066\u304f\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u304c\u3001\u30e1\u30a4\u30f3\u30b7\u30ca\u30ea\u30aa\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u6c17\u304c\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

We reported \u201cQuantitative and Qualitative Monetary Easing with Yield Curve Control\u201d (BOJ) was started in 09\/21\/2016. In other words, this is \u201cIron plated Market manipulation for inflation\u201d. (2\/1\/2018)<\/a><\/font><\/p>\n

We think \u201cA sharp interest drop\u201d will be after stopping this operation.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"chart2_conv\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u2605\u2605\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u4f5c\u6210\u6642\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u2605\u2605<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u3067\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u305f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3060\u3051\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5185\u5bb9\u306b\u3088\u308a\u975e\u63d0\u4f9b\u306e\u5834\u5408\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font>Contact Us<\/font><\/a>\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n

These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n

Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u884c\u60c5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u6ee1\u8db3\u60a8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u6982\u4e0d\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u76c8\u4e8f\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n

\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u8bbf\u95ee\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u518d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u4e2d\u9577\u671f\u30fb\u53cd\u7701\u3068\u539f\u56e0\u8ffd\u6c42\uff08\uff11\uff09\u30fb10\u5e74\u50b5\u306e\u65e5\u7c73\u91d1\u5229\u5dee\u7e2e\u5c0f\u306e\u5f8c\u306b\u5186\u9ad8\u304c\u3084\u3063\u3066\u304d\u305f USDJPY mid-to-long term; Self\u2010examination and reason (1); After inte […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-15645","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-usdjpy","category-report"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15645","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=15645"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15645\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":15646,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/15645\/revisions\/15646"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=15645"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=15645"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=15645"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}