{"id":16445,"date":"2018-08-28T07:32:00","date_gmt":"2018-08-27T22:32:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=16445"},"modified":"2018-08-27T11:35:07","modified_gmt":"2018-08-27T02:35:07","slug":"%e6%97%a5%e7%b5%8c%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e3%83%bb1991%e5%b9%b4%e4%bb%a5%e9%99%8d%e3%81%ae%e5%80%a4%e5%8b%95%e3%81%8d%e3%81%ab%e7%85%a7%e3%82%89%e3%81%99%e3%81%a8%e3%80%8c%e3%82%a2%e3%83%99%e3%83%8e","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=16445","title":{"rendered":"\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u30fb1991\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u306e\u5024\u52d5\u304d\u306b\u7167\u3089\u3059\u3068\u300c\u30a2\u30d9\u30ce\u30df\u30af\u30b9\u300d\u300c\u90f5\u653f\u300d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u65b0\u6a5f\u8ef8\u304c\u3042\u308c\u30702019\u5e74\u672b\u306b3\u4e07\u5186\u3082\u3042\u308a\u3046\u308b\u30fb\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u65e5\u9280\u306e\u300c\u30d8\u30ea\u30b3\u30d7\u30bf\u30fc\u7de9\u548c\u300d\u3068\u304b\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u30fb1991\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u306e\u5024\u52d5\u304d\u306b\u7167\u3089\u3059\u3068\u300c\u30a2\u30d9\u30ce\u30df\u30af\u30b9\u300d\u300c\u90f5\u653f\u300d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u65b0\u6a5f\u8ef8\u304c\u3042\u308c\u30702019\u5e74\u672b\u306b3\u4e07\u5186\u3082\u3042\u308a\u3046\u308b\u30fb\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u65e5\u9280\u306e\u300c\u30d8\u30ea\u30b3\u30d7\u30bf\u30fc\u7de9\u548c\u300d\u3068\u304b\uff1f<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

N225; After 1991, if Japanese politics can provide a new method like \u201cAbenomics\u201d or \u201cYUSEI\u201d, the price may reach 30000yen at the end in 2019.<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u7ecf225\u3002\u5982\u679c\u65e5\u672c\u653f\u6cbb\u53ef\u4ee5\u63d0\u4f9b\u50cf\u201c\u5b89\u500d\u7ecf\u6d4e\u5b66\u201d\u6216\u201c\u90ae\u653f\u6c11\u8425\u5316\u201d\u8fd9\u6837\u7684\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u5c31\u90a3\u4e482019\u5e74\u5e95\u4ef7\u683c\u53ef\u80fd\u8fbe\u523030000\u65e5\u5143\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u65e5\u672c\u592e\u884c\u7684\u201c\u76f4\u5347\u673a\u6492\u94b1\u201d\uff1f<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u672c\u65e5\u306f\u300c\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u306f2019\u5e74\u672b\u306b3\u4e07\u5186\u306f\u3042\u308b\u304b\uff1f\u300d\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u691c\u8a3c\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7d50\u8ad6\u306f\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u30e2\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30e0\uff08\u65e5\u67c4\u3068\u5024\u5e45\u306e\u5272\u5408\uff09\u3067\u8003\u3048\u308b\u3068\u300c\u30a2\u30d9\u30ce\u30df\u30af\u30b9\u300d\u3084\u300c\u90f5\u653f\u300d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u4e8b\u8c61\u304c\u3042\u308c\u3070\u53ef\u80fd\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u624b\u3063\u53d6\u308a\u65e9\u3044\u306e\u306f\u3001\u305f\u3068\u3048\u3070\u65e5\u9280\u304c\u300c\u30d8\u30ea\u30b3\u30d7\u30bf\u30fc\u7de9\u548c\u300d\u3092\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u304f\u3089\u3044\u523a\u6fc0\u7684\u306a\u5974\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3067\u3082\u300c\u306a\u3044\u3093\u3060\u308d\u3046\u306a\u3041\u300d\u3068\u306f\u601d\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

Today, we survey N225 will reach 30000yen at the end of 2019.<\/font><\/p>\n

Our conclusion is if political technique will execute, it will be possible.<\/font><\/p>\n

If \u201chelicopter easing\u201d will run, this will be easiest method.<\/font><\/p>\n

But it will not come true.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2019\u5e74\u672b\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u73fe\u5728\u304b\u3089\u304a\u304a\u3088\u305d300-330\u55b6\u696d\u65e5\u5f8c\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30ad\u30ea\u306e\u3044\u3044\u3068\u3053\u308d\u30671991\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u306e\u65e5\u8db3\u3092\u4f7f\u3044\u3001300\u55b6\u696d\u65e5\u5f8c\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u7387\uff08\u4e0b\u964d\u7387\uff09\u3092\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u306b\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u7e26\u8ef8\u306f\u56de\u6570\u3001\u6a2a\u8ef8\u306b\u306f\u4e0a\u6607\u7387\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

300\u55b6\u696d\u65e5\u5f8c\u306e\u5e73\u5747\u5024\u306f103%\u3001\u6a19\u6e96\u504f\u5dee25%\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3064\u307e\u308a\u30011991\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u3001\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u3092\u8cb7\u3063\u3066300\u55b6\u696d\u65e5\u3082\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5e73\u57473%\u306e\u30ad\u30e3\u30d4\u30bf\u30eb\u30b2\u30a4\u30f3\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u306e\u56de\u5e30\u7dda\u306f\u53f3\u4e0b\u304c\u308a\u306a\u306e\u3067\u3001\u9ad8\u5024\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u306f\u5c11\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u304c\u307f\u3066\u3068\u308c\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u611f\u899a\u7684\u306b\u8aac\u660e\u3059\u308b\u3068\u30011991\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u306f\u300c\u682a\u3063\u3066\u305d\u306e\u3046\u3061\u4e0a\u304c\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3046\u3051\u3069\uff5e\u3002\u542b\u307f\u640d\u3092\u62b1\u3048\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u304d\u304c\u591a\u3044\u6c17\u304c\u3059\u308b\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u611f\u3058\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\u3002<\/p>\n

\u73fe\u572822000\u5186\u306e\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u304c30000\u5186\u3092\u76ee\u6307\u3059\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u3001130%(30000\/22000)\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u904e\u53bb\u306b\u306f\u3082\u3063\u3068\u51c4\u3044\u306e\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u306e\u3067\u3001\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3042\u308b\u3068\u8a00\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

At the end of 2019 means after 300-330business days.<\/font><\/p>\n

We use data after 1991 and analyze 300 business day\u2019s performance.<\/font><\/p>\n

Vertical is frequency and horizontal is performance.<\/font><\/p>\n

The average is 103% and standard division is 25%.<\/font><\/p>\n

This means after 1991, when you buy N225, average capital gain was 3%.<\/font><\/p>\n

But regression line is decreasing and higher zone was rare.<\/font><\/p>\n

The latest N225 price is 22000yen around and 30000yen is 130% rise (30000\/22000).<\/font><\/p>\n

In past cases, there were many great rise and 130% rise may occur.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"chart1_conv\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u3057\u304b\u3057\u3001\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u72b6\u6cc1\u306f\u5c11\u3057\u7279\u6b8a\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u72b6\u6cc1\u306f\u76f4\u8fd1\u5b89\u5024\u304b\u3089120-130%\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u304c\u307f\u3089\u308c\u305f\u5f8c\u306e\u6301\u3061\u5408\u3044\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

120-130\uff05\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306e\u4e0a\u6607\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u5f8c\u3001\u518d\u5ea6\u4e0a\u6607\u3057\u305f\u5c40\u9762\u306b\u79fb\u884c\u3059\u308b\u5fc5\u8981\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

1991\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u3001130\uff05\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u308b\u518d\u4e0a\u6607\u3057\u305f\u5c40\u9762\u306f2\u56de\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3064\u307e\u308a\u3001\u682a\u4fa1\u304c\u3042\u304c\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306a\u30c8\u30ea\u30ac\u30fc\u304c\u3042\u3063\u305f\u305f\u3081\u306b\u4e0a\u304c\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3082\u3044\u3048\u308b\u5c40\u9762\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u4e0a\u6607\u3059\u308b\u305f\u3081\u306e\u71c3\u6599\u304c\u5fc5\u8981\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5192\u982d\u306e\u300c\u30d8\u30ea\u30b3\u30d7\u30bf\u30fc\u7de9\u548c\u300d\u304c\u982d\u3092\u3088\u304e\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

But the latest condition is unique.<\/font><\/p>\n

The latest price is about 120-130% higher zone form the latest lowest and run into range zone.<\/font><\/p>\n

We find out similar cases after 1991 and there were only two case.<\/font><\/p>\n

In such cases, there needed some kind of political aid.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"chart2_conv\"<\/a>\"chart3_conv\"<\/a>\"chart4_conv\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u2605\u2605\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u4f5c\u6210\u6642\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u306e\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u2605\u2605<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n

\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u3067\u4f7f\u7528\u3057\u305f\u30c7\u30fc\u30bf\u3092\u30c0\u30a6\u30f3\u30ed\u30fc\u30c9\u3057\u3066\u3044\u305f\u3060\u3051\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u5185\u5bb9\u306b\u3088\u308a\u975e\u63d0\u4f9b\u306e\u5834\u5408\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font>Contact Us<\/font><\/a>\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n

These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n

Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u884c\u60c5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u6ee1\u8db3\u60a8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u6982\u4e0d\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u76c8\u4e8f\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n

\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u8bbf\u95ee\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u518d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u30fb1991\u5e74\u4ee5\u964d\u306e\u5024\u52d5\u304d\u306b\u7167\u3089\u3059\u3068\u300c\u30a2\u30d9\u30ce\u30df\u30af\u30b9\u300d\u300c\u90f5\u653f\u300d\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u65b0\u6a5f\u8ef8\u304c\u3042\u308c\u30702019\u5e74\u672b\u306b3\u4e07\u5186\u3082\u3042\u308a\u3046\u308b\u30fb\u4f8b\u3048\u3070\u65e5\u9280\u306e\u300c\u30d8\u30ea\u30b3\u30d7\u30bf\u30fc\u7de9\u548c\u300d\u3068\u304b\uff1f N225; After 1991, if Japanese […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-16445","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-report","category-nikkei-225"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16445","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=16445"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16445\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":16446,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/16445\/revisions\/16446"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=16445"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=16445"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=16445"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}