{"id":183,"date":"2010-08-26T22:44:41","date_gmt":"2010-08-26T13:44:41","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=183"},"modified":"2011-03-06T22:06:41","modified_gmt":"2011-03-06T13:06:41","slug":"%e7%b1%b3%ef%bc%91%ef%bc%90%e5%b9%b4%e5%82%b5%e6%9c%88%e8%b6%b3%e7%9b%ae%e6%a8%99%e5%80%a4u-s-10yr-bond-monthly-target","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=183","title":{"rendered":"\u7c73\uff11\uff10\u5e74\u50b5\u6708\u8db3\u76ee\u6a19\u5024\/U.S. 10yr Bond Monthly Target"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u7c73\uff11\uff10\u5e74\u50b5\u306e\u6708\u8db3\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0b\u843d\u3057\u3064\u3065\u3051\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3069\u3053\u307e\u3067\u4e0b\u843d\u3092\u7d9a\u3051\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u7d50\u8ad6\u3092\u7533\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3068\u3001\u5927\u5e95\u306e\u76ee\u6a19\u5024\u306f\u30011.7\u304b\u30891.6\u306e\u9593\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ee5\u4e0b\u304c\u8a08\u7b97\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Today\u2019s analyze is about U.S. 10Yr. Bond.<\/p>\n<p>Now, U.S. 10Yr. Bond is going to down sides, where is the bottom?<\/p>\n<p>Our calculation target is between 1.7 and 1.6.<\/p>\n<p>Under here is our calculation.<\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>\uff11\u3064\u3081\u306e\u691c\u8a3c\u3068\u3057\u3066\u65e5\u672c\u5f0f\u306e\u4f1d\u7d71\u7684\u306a\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u300c\u534a\u5024\u3001\uff18\u639b\u3051\u3001\uff12\u5272\u5f15\u300d\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6700\u9ad8\u5024\u306f\uff11\uff19\uff18\uff11\u5e74\uff19\u6708\u306e15.84\u304b\u3089\u306e\u4e0b\u843d\u306f<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>15.84 * 0.5 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 5.0688 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>The first way of calculation is Japanese traditional way, \u201cHanne Hachigake Niwaribiki\u201d.<\/p>\n<p>(This is bargain sale value putting way; first, you may discount 50% of the fixed price, second discount is 40% of the fixed price, third discount is 32% of the fixed price.)<\/p>\n<p>The highest price is 15.84 in September 1981. And the calculate price is under here.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>15.84 * 0.5 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 5.0688 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>\u6628\u65e5\u306e\u7d42\u5024\u306f\u30012.54\u306a\u306e\u3067\u30015.0688\u304b\u3089\u306e\u4e0b\u843d\u304c\u59cb\u307e\u3063\u305f\u3068\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5927\u5e95\u306e\u5024\u306f<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>5.0688 * 0.5 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 1.622016 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Last day\u2019s close price is 2.54, and the price is under 5.0688. So, if 5.0688 is the high price, the calculate price is under here.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>5.0688 * 0.5 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 1.622016 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>\uff12\u3064\u76ee\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\uff12\uff10\uff10\uff17\u5e74\uff16\u6708\u9ad8\u5024\u304b\u3089\u306e\u4e0b\u843d\u3060\u3068\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5927\u5e95\u306e\u5024\u306f\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>5.333 * 0.5 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 1.70656 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>The second way of calculation; Set the start point 5.333 in June 2007.<\/p>\n<p>The calculate price is under here.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>5.333 * 0.5 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 1.70656 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>\uff13\u3064\u76ee\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\uff12\uff10\uff10\uff18\u5e74\uff16\u6708\u9ad8\u5024\u304b\u3089\u306e\u4e0b\u843d\u3060\u3068\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5927\u5e95\u306e\u5024\u306f\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>4.288 * 0.5 * 0.8 =1.7152 <\/li>\n<li>4.288 * 0.5 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 1.37216 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>The third way of calculation; Set the start point 4.288 in June 2008.<\/p>\n<p>The calculate price is under here.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>4.288 * 0.5 * 0.8 =1.7152 <\/li>\n<li>4.288 * 0.5 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 1.37216 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>\uff14\u3064\u76ee\u306e\u8a08\u7b97\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\uff12\uff10\uff11\uff10\u5e74\uff14\u6708\u9ad8\u5024\u304b\u3089\u306e\u4e0b\u843d\u3060\u3068\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5927\u5e95\u306e\u5024\u306f\u3001<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>4.013 * 0.5 * 0.8 =1.6052 <\/li>\n<li>4.013 * 0.5 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 1.28416 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>The fourth way of calculation; Set the start point 4.013 in April 2010.<\/p>\n<p>The calculate price is under here.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>4.013 * 0.5 * 0.8 =1.6052 <\/li>\n<li>4.013 * 0.5 * 0.8 * 0.8 = 1.28416 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>\u6b21\u306b\u4e00\u76ee\u5747\u8861\u8868\u306e\u6ce2\u52d5\u8a08\u7b97\u65b9\u6cd5\u3067\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2007\u5e746\u6708\u9ad8\u5024\u306f5.333 <\/li>\n<li>2008\u5e741\u6708\u5b89\u5024\u306f3.285 <\/li>\n<li>2008\u5e746\u6708\u9ad8\u5024\u306f4.288 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002N\u8a08\u7b97\u5024\u306f2.24\u3001V\u8a08\u7b97\u5024\u306f2.28\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>2008\u5e7412\u6708\u306e\u6700\u4f4e\u5024\u306f\u30aa\u30fc\u30d0\u30fc\u30b7\u30e5\u30fc\u30c8\u3057\u3066\u5b89\u50242.04\u3092\u3064\u3051\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Next way of calculation, we use Ichimoku Kinkouhyou\u2019s way.<\/p>\n<p>For your information;<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>June 2007\u2019s high price is 5.333. <\/li>\n<li>January 2008\u2019s low price is 3.285. <\/li>\n<li>June 2008\u2019s high price is 4.288. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The conclusion; N calculation value is 2.24. V calculation value is 2.28.<\/p>\n<p>In December 2008, the low price was 2.04; this was overshoot. <\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border-right-width: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px\" title=\"December 2008\" border=\"0\" alt=\"December 2008\" src=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/image006.jpg\" width=\"644\" height=\"430\" \/> <\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u76f8\u5834\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u8a08\u7b97\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>2008\u5e746\u6708\u9ad8\u5024\u306f4.288 <\/li>\n<li>2008\u5e7412\u6708\u5b89\u5024\u306f2.04 <\/li>\n<li>2010\u5e744\u6708\u9ad8\u5024\u306f4.013 <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002N\u8a08\u7b97\u5024\u306f1.765\u3001V\u8a08\u7b97\u5024\u306f0.067\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>N\u8a08\u7b97\u5024\u306f\u3001\u73fe\u5b9f\u7684\u306a\u5024\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>Next, we calculate the present quotation.<\/p>\n<ul>\n<li>June 2008\u2019s high price is 4.288. <\/li>\n<li>December 2008\u2019s low price is 2.04. <\/li>\n<li>April 2010\u2019s high price is 4.013. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n<p>The conclusion; N calculation value is 1.765. V calculation value is 0.067.<\/p>\n<p>I think N calculation value is realistic rate.<\/p>\n<p><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border-right-width: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px\" title=\"the present quotation\" border=\"0\" alt=\"the present quotation\" src=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2010\/08\/image007.gif\" width=\"552\" height=\"480\" \/><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u7c73\uff11\uff10\u5e74\u50b5\u306e\u6708\u8db3\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3067\u3059\u3002 \u4e0b\u843d\u3057\u3064\u3065\u3051\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u3069\u3053\u307e\u3067\u4e0b\u843d\u3092\u7d9a\u3051\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3057\u3087\u3046\u304b\uff1f \u7d50\u8ad6\u3092\u7533\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3068\u3001\u5927\u5e95\u306e\u76ee\u6a19\u5024\u306f\u30011.7\u304b\u30891.6\u306e\u9593\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002 \u4ee5\u4e0b\u304c\u8a08\u7b97\u3067\u3059\u3002 Today\u2019s analyze is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,13],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-183","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-report","category-cboe-interest-rate-10-year-t-no"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=183"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1022,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/183\/revisions\/1022"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=183"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=183"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=183"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}