{"id":3132,"date":"2012-05-22T11:47:04","date_gmt":"2012-05-22T02:47:04","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=3132"},"modified":"2012-05-22T11:47:45","modified_gmt":"2012-05-22T02:47:45","slug":"%e3%82%b7%e3%83%a9%e3%83%bc%e6%95%99%e6%8e%88%e3%80%8c%ef%bc%88%e7%b1%b3%e5%9b%bd%e3%81%af%ef%bc%89%e6%97%a5%e6%9c%ac%e3%81%ae%ef%bc%91%ef%bc%99%ef%bc%99%ef%bc%95%e5%b9%b4%e5%89%8d%e5%be%8c%e3%81%ab-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=3132","title":{"rendered":"\u30b7\u30e9\u30fc\u6559\u6388\u300c\uff08\u7c73\u56fd\u306f\uff09\u65e5\u672c\u306e\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff15\u5e74\u524d\u5f8c\u306b\u4f3c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u300d\u3002S&P500\u3068TOPIX\u3092\u691c\u8a3c\/ Professor Schiller says ”U.S. Is similar to 1995 Japanese condition” and we compare S&P500 and TOPIX."},"content":{"rendered":"

2012\/05\/20\u4ed8\u3051\u65e5\u7d4c\u65b0\u805e\u306b\u30ed\u30d0\u30fc\u30c8\u30fb\u30b7\u30e9\u30fc\u6559\u6388\u3078\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30bf\u30d3\u30e5\u30fc\u8a18\u4e8b\u304c\u63b2\u8f09\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u305d\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30bf\u30d3\u30e5\u30fc\u306e\u4e00\u90e8\u306b\u300c\u65e5\u672c\u306e\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff15\u5e74\u524d\u5f8c\u306b\u4f3c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u610f\u898b\u304c\u8ff0\u3079\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u65e5\u306f\u3001S&P500\u3068TOPIX\u306e\u9031\u8db3\u7d42\u5024\u3092\u5143\u306b\u691c\u8a3c\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

The interview to Professor Robert Schiller was published at 2012\/05\/20 attachment Nikkei newspaper.<\/font><\/p>\n

In this interview, he says \u201cU.S. is similar to 1995 Japanese condition\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

Today, we analyze S&P500 and TOPIX based on weekend close price.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\uff12\u7a2e\u985e\u306e\u57fa\u70b9\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u3092\u7528\u610f\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002(\u305d\u308c\u305e\u308c\u4fa1\u683c\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u3068\u30d1\u30fc\u30bb\u30f3\u30c6\u30fc\u30b8\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9)<\/p>\n

We prepare 2 types of charts and these base points are different.\uff08Each of them has a different a price base and a percentage base.\uff09.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

1. TOPIX\u306e\u6700\u9ad8\u5024\uff081989\/12\/25\uff09\u3068S&P500\u306e\u9ad8\u5024\uff082007\/10\/8\uff09\u57fa\u70b9\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\uff08\u30d1\u30fc\u30bb\u30f3\u30c6\u30fc\u30b8\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u5171\u5206\u6563\u5024\uff1a0.26\uff09<\/p>\n

1. The base point are TOPIX highest (12\/25\/1989) and S&P500 high (10\/08\/2007) and the percentage based covariance value is 0.26point.<\/font><\/p>\n

<\/font><\/p>\n

\"01\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

\"02\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

2. TOPIX\u306e\u623b\u308a\u9ad8\u5024\uff081991\/04\/01\uff09\u3068S&P500\u306e\u9ad8\u5024\uff082007\/10\/8\uff09\u57fa\u70b9\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\uff08\u30d1\u30fc\u30bb\u30f3\u30c6\u30fc\u30b8\u30d9\u30fc\u30b9\u5171\u5206\u6563\u5024\uff1a0.65\uff09<\/p>\n

2. The base point are TOPIX highest (04\/01\/1991) and S&P500 high (10\/08\/2007) and the percentage based covariance value is 0.65point.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"03\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

\"04\"<\/a> <\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u5171\u5206\u6563\u5024\/The covariance value <\/p>\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\n

-1 – 0.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5f37\u3044\u8ca0\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\/Very strong negative correlation<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

-0.7 – -0.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u304b\u306a\u308a\u306e\u8ca0\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\/Strong negative correlation<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

-0.4 – -0.2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u3084\u3084\u76f8\u95a2\u3042\u308a\/ some negative correlation<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

-0.2 – 0<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u76f8\u95a2\u306a\u3057\/No correlation<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

0 – 0.2<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u76f8\u95a2\u306a\u3057\/No correlation<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

0.2 – 0.4<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u3084\u3084\u76f8\u95a2\u3042\u308a\/ Some correlation<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

0.4 – 0.7<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u304b\u306a\u308a\u306e\u6b63\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\/Correlation<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n

\n

0.7 – 1<\/p>\n<\/td>\n

\n

\u5f37\u3044\u6b63\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\/ Strong correlation<\/p>\n<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n

 <\/p>\n

TOPIX\u306e\u623b\u308a\u9ad8\u5024\uff081991\/04\/01\uff09\u3068S&P500\u306e\u9ad8\u5024\uff082007\/10\/8\uff09\u304b\u3089\u306e\u52d5\u304d\u306f\u300c\u304b\u306a\u308a\u306e\u6b63\u306e\u76f8\u95a2\u300d\u95a2\u4fc2\u3067\u52d5\u3044\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u65e5\u67c4\u7684\u306b\u3082\u5148\u9031\u306fS&P500\u306e\u57fa\u70b9\u304b\u3089\u306e241\u9031\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3092TOPIX\u306b\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u3081\u308b\u30681995\/11\/06\u306e\u9031\u306b\u76f8\u5f53\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30ed\u30d0\u30fc\u30c8\u30fb\u30b7\u30e9\u30fc\u6559\u6388\u306e\u898b\u89e3\u306f\u682a\u4fa1\u3068\u65e5\u67c4\u306e\u95a2\u4fc2\u3067\u307f\u3066\u3082\u7684\u3092\u5c04\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

There is a correlation between TOPIX 04\/01\/1991 and S&P500 10\/08\/2012. <\/font><\/p>\n

Applying the past TOPIX price movement to the recent S&P500 market, the recent price is similar to TOPIX 11\/6\/1995 price movement.<\/font><\/p>\n

Professor Robert Schiller provides us the proper \u201cHIGARA\u201d and \u201cNEHABA\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font>Contact Us<\/font><\/a>\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n

These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n

Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

2012\/05\/20\u4ed8\u3051\u65e5\u7d4c\u65b0\u805e\u306b\u30ed\u30d0\u30fc\u30c8\u30fb\u30b7\u30e9\u30fc\u6559\u6388\u3078\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30bf\u30d3\u30e5\u30fc\u8a18\u4e8b\u304c\u63b2\u8f09\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u305d\u306e\u30a4\u30f3\u30bf\u30d3\u30e5\u30fc\u306e\u4e00\u90e8\u306b\u300c\u65e5\u672c\u306e\uff11\uff19\uff19\uff15\u5e74\u524d\u5f8c\u306b\u4f3c\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3002\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u610f\u898b\u304c\u8ff0\u3079\u3089\u308c\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002 \u672c\u65e5\u306f\u3001S&P500 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,9,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3132","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp500","category-topix","category-report"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3132","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3132"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3132\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3134,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3132\/revisions\/3134"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3132"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3132"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3132"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}