{"id":3142,"date":"2012-05-23T00:18:19","date_gmt":"2012-05-22T15:18:19","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=3142"},"modified":"2012-05-23T00:18:19","modified_gmt":"2012-05-22T15:18:19","slug":"%e3%82%b8%e3%83%a0%e3%83%bb%e3%83%ad%e3%82%b8%e3%83%a3%e3%83%bc%e3%82%b9%e3%81%95%e3%82%93%e3%81%af%e3%80%8c2013%e5%b9%b4%e3%81%af%e3%81%8a%e3%81%9d%e3%82%89%e3%81%8f%e6%9c%80%e6%82%aa%e3%81%ab","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=3142","title":{"rendered":"\u30b8\u30e0\u30fb\u30ed\u30b8\u30e3\u30fc\u30b9\u3055\u3093\u306f\u300c2013\u5e74\u306f\u304a\u305d\u3089\u304f\u6700\u60aa\u306b\u306a\u308b\u300d\u3068\u304a\u3063\u3057\u3083\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u672c\u65e5\u306e\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u306e\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u3082\u540c\u3058\u3088\u3046\u306a\u7d50\u8ad6\u306b\u9054\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\/Mr. Jim Rogers says &ldquo;2013 Is Probably Going to Be a Mess.&rdquo; and today&rsquo;s our view is very similar."},"content":{"rendered":"<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?m=20120522\">\u6628\u65e5\u306e\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8<\/a>\u3067\u306f\u3001\u300c\u5148\u9031\u306fS&amp;P500\u306e\u57fa\u70b9\uff082007\/10\/8\uff09\u304b\u3089\u306e241\u9031\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3092TOPIX\uff08\u57fa\u70b91991\/04\/01\uff09\u306b\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u3081\u308b\u30681995\/11\/06\u306e\u9031\u306b\u76f8\u5f53\u3057\u307e\u3059\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u898b\u89e3\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u65e5\u306f\u3001\u4eca\u5f8c\u3068\u3082\u3057\u3070\u3089\u304fS&amp;P500\u304cTOPIX\u306b\u5bc4\u308a\u6dfb\u3046\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u3068\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u306a\u308b\u304b\u3092\u691c\u8a3c\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?m=20120522\">Last day we reported<\/a> \u201cApplying the past TOPIX price movement to the recent S&amp;P500 market, the recent price is similar to TOPIX 11\/6\/1995 price movement.\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">Today, we analyze if the S&amp;P500 may follow TOPIX for some time, how the market price will become.<\/font><\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>TOPIX\u3092\u57fa\u6e96\u3068\u3057\u305f\u5909\u52d5\u5e45\u3092\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001S&amp;P500\u306f\u3001\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u306e\u671f\u9593\u3067\u3001-1\u03c3\uff5e1\u03c3\u306e\u9593\u306b\u53ce\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>TOPIX\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u5f93\u5c5e\u7684\u306a\u52d5\u304d\u3092\u60f3\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u3001\u73fe\u5728\u306eS&amp;P500\u306f\u4e0a\u65b9\u306b\u30aa\u30fc\u30d0\u30fc\u30b7\u30e5\u30fc\u30c8\u3057\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3068\u3053\u308d\u304b\u3089\u306e\u8abf\u6574\u3067\u3042\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">Almost all time, we can see the S&amp;P500 market price is inside -1 sigma to 1 sigma (TOPIX basis).<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">If the S&amp;P500 market price may follow past TOPIX, the recent S&amp;P500 market price is overshoot and the recent collection is proper.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/1_TOPIX.png\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border-right-width: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px\" title=\"1_TOPIX\" border=\"0\" alt=\"1_TOPIX\" src=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/1_TOPIX_thumb.png\" width=\"644\" height=\"403\" \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>S&amp;P500\u3092\u57fa\u6e96\u3068\u3057\u305f\u5909\u52d5\u5e45\u3092\u66f8\u3044\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001TOPIX\u306f\u3001\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u306e\u671f\u9593\u3067\u3001-1\u03c3\uff5e1\u03c3\u306e\u9593\u306b\u53ce\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u308b\u3053\u3068\u304c\u308f\u304b\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>S&amp;P500\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u3066\u5f93\u5c5e\u7684\u306a\u52d5\u304d\u3092\u60f3\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3042\u308c\u3070\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306eTOPIX\u306f2\u03c3\u5185\u306b\u5165\u3063\u3066\u304a\u308a\u60f3\u5b9a\u5185\u306e\u52d5\u304d\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">Almost all time, we can see the TOPIX market price is inside -1 sigma to 1 sigma (S&amp;P500 basis).<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">If the past TOPIX market price may follow S&amp;P500, the past TOPIX market price is inside 2sigma and this is an expected motion.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/2_SP500.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border-right-width: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px\" title=\"2_SP500\" border=\"0\" alt=\"2_SP500\" src=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/2_SP500_thumb.png\" width=\"644\" height=\"398\" \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u5f8c\u3082S&amp;P500\u304cTOPIX\u306b\u5bc4\u308a\u6dfb\u3046\u3088\u3046\u306a\u52d5\u304d\u3092\u60f3\u5b9a\u3057\u30012014\u5e74\u672b\u307e\u3067\u306eS&amp;P500\u306e\u60f3\u5b9a\u3092\u3057\u3066\u307f\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e0a\u5024\u306e\u76ee\u51e6\u306f2\u03c3\u3001\u4e0b\u5024\u306e\u76ee\u51e6\u306f-\uff12\u03c3\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u5e74\u306e11\u6708\u3050\u3089\u3044\u307e\u3067\u4e0a\u6607\u5f8c\u306f\u53f3\u80a9\u4e0b\u304c\u308a\u306e\u66f2\u7dda\u3092\u63cf\u3044\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30b8\u30e0\u30fb\u30ed\u30b8\u30e3\u30fc\u30b9\u3055\u3093\u306f\u300c2013 Is Probably Going To Be A Mess.\u300d(2013\u5e74\u306f\u304a\u305d\u3089\u304f\u6700\u60aa\u306b\u306a\u308b)\u3068\u304a\u3063\u3057\u3083\u3063\u3066\u304a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u307e\u3055\u306b\u305d\u306e\u901a\u308a\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">Next, if the S&amp;P500 market price will follow in future and how the market price will become to 2014 end.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">The upper side is 2 sigma and the lower side is -2 sigma.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">We can see the S&amp;P500 market price will continue bull market to November this year, after that the market will go into bear market.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">Mr. Jim Rogers says \u201c2013 Is Probably Going to Be a Mess.\u201d and this report fits his view.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/3_FUTURE.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" style=\"border-right-width: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; border-left-width: 0px\" title=\"3_FUTURE\" border=\"0\" alt=\"3_FUTURE\" src=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2012\/05\/3_FUTURE_thumb.png\" width=\"644\" height=\"412\" \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?page_id=41\">Contact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?page_id=41\"><font color=\"#008080\">Contact Us<\/font><\/a><font color=\"#008080\">\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u6628\u65e5\u306e\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u3067\u306f\u3001\u300c\u5148\u9031\u306fS&amp;P500\u306e\u57fa\u70b9\uff082007\/10\/8\uff09\u304b\u3089\u306e241\u9031\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3001\u3053\u308c\u3092TOPIX\uff08\u57fa\u70b91991\/04\/01\uff09\u306b\u5f53\u3066\u306f\u3081\u308b\u30681995\/11\/06\u306e\u9031\u306b\u76f8\u5f53\u3057\u307e\u3059\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u898b\u89e3\u304c\u5f97\u3089\u308c\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[32,9,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-3142","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-sp500","category-topix","category-report"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3142","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=3142"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3142\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":3143,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/3142\/revisions\/3143"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=3142"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=3142"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=3142"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}