{"id":5301,"date":"2013-06-11T21:47:01","date_gmt":"2013-06-11T12:47:01","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=5301"},"modified":"2013-06-11T21:47:01","modified_gmt":"2013-06-11T12:47:01","slug":"%e3%83%89%e3%83%a9%e3%83%83%e3%82%b1%e3%83%b3%e3%83%9f%e3%83%a9%e3%83%bc%e3%81%95%e3%82%93%e3%81%af%e3%80%8c%e5%b0%86%e6%9d%a5%e7%9a%84%e3%81%ab%e3%81%bf%e3%82%8b%e3%81%a8%e3%80%81%e5%95%86%e5%93%81-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=5301","title":{"rendered":"\u30c9\u30e9\u30c3\u30b1\u30f3\u30df\u30e9\u30fc\u3055\u3093\u306f\u300c\u5c06\u6765\u7684\u306b\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u306f\u6bd2\u3092\u542b\u3093\u3060\u30ab\u30af\u30c6\u30eb\u3060\u300d\u3068\u8a00\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u691c\u8a3c\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u306e2\/Mr. Druckenmiller Says &ldquo;It&rsquo;s a poisonous cocktail when you look at commodities going forward&rdquo; and we verify it. Part 2.\/\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2\u5148\u751f\u8bf4\uff1a&ldquo;\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u6bd2\u7684\u9e21\u5c3e\u9152\uff0c\u5f53\u4f60\u5728\u770b\u5546\u54c1\u672a\u6765\u3002&rdquo;\u9a8c\u8bc1\u90a3\u4e2a\u3002\u90a3\u4e2a2\u3002"},"content":{"rendered":"<p><font color=\"#800000\"><\/font><\/p>\n<h4><font color=\"#800000\">\u30c9\u30e9\u30c3\u30b1\u30f3\u30df\u30e9\u30fc\u3055\u3093\u306f\u300c\u5c06\u6765\u7684\u306b\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u306f\u6bd2\u3092\u542b\u3093\u3060\u30ab\u30af\u30c6\u30eb\u3060\u300d\u3068\u8a00\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u691c\u8a3c\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u306e2<\/font><\/h4>\n<h4><font color=\"#800000\">Mr. Druckenmiller Says \u201cIt\u2019s a poisonous cocktail when you look at commodities going forward\u201d and we verify it. Part 2.<\/font><\/h4>\n<h4><font color=\"#800000\">\u5fb7\u9c81\u80af\u7c73\u52d2\u5148\u751f\u8bf4\uff1a\u201c\u8fd9\u662f\u4e00\u79cd\u6709\u6bd2\u7684\u9e21\u5c3e\u9152\uff0c\u5f53\u4f60\u5728\u770b\u5546\u54c1\u672a\u6765\u3002\u201d\u9a8c\u8bc1\u90a3\u4e2a\u3002\u90a3\u4e2a2\u3002<\/font><\/h4>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>\u5148\u9031\u306e\u30d9\u30ea\u30bf\u30b9\u300c\u30d8\u30c3\u30b8\u30d5\u30a1\u30f3\u30c9\u306e\u76ae\u7b97\u7528\u300d21\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u767b\u5834\u306b\u6c17\u306b\u306a\u308b\u8a18\u4e8b\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30c9\u30e9\u30c3\u30b1\u30f3\u30df\u30e9\u30fc\u3055\u3093\u306f\u300c\u5c06\u6765\u7684\u306b\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u306f\u6bd2\u3092\u542b\u3093\u3060\u30ab\u30af\u30c6\u30eb\u3060\u300d\u3068\u8a00\u3063\u305f\u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30c9\u30e9\u30c3\u30b1\u30f3\u30df\u30e9\u30fc\u3055\u3093\u306f\u4f1d\u8aac\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u5bb6\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306a\u6709\u540d\u306a\u65b9\u304c\u8a00\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u6c17\u306b\u306a\u3063\u305f\u6642\u306f\u3001\u79c1\u305f\u3061\u306f\u81ea\u5206\u3067\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u7d44\u307f\u7acb\u3066\u3066\u691c\u8a3c\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u305f\u3060\u3057\u3001\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u3092\u7d44\u307f\u7acb\u3066\u308b\u307e\u3067\u306b\u306f\u6642\u9593\u304c\u304b\u304b\u308b\u306e\u3067\u3001\u672c\u65e5\u307e\u3067\u691c\u8a3c\u304c\u5ef6\u3073\u3066\u3057\u307e\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672c\u65e5\u306f\u3001\u7c73\u5546\u54c1\u5e02\u5834\u306e\u4ee3\u8868\u7684\u306a\u9298\u67c4\u306e\u6708\u8db3\u7dda\u3092\u4f7f\u3044\u5206\u6790\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">Last week NIKKEI Veritas article \u201cThe unreliable account of a hedge fund\u201d (P21) was very worrisome.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">Mr. Druckenmiller Says \u201cIt\u2019s a poisonous cocktail when you look at commodities going forward\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">Mr. Druckenmiller is legendary investor.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">When what such a more famous one said is worrisome, we build up our original verify model.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">But it takes much time and now we can provide it.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">Today, we analyze the typical commodity brand of U.S. market using the monthly data.<\/font><\/p>\n<p>\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u306f\u6708\u8db3\u7d42\u5024\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u624b\u306e\u5206\u6790\u3092\u884c\u3046\u305f\u3081\u306b\u306f\u57fa\u70b9\u304c\u3068\u3066\u3082\u5927\u5207\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4eca\u56de\u306f2007\u5e7401\u6708\u3092\u57fa\u70b9\u3068\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u6628\u65e5\u306b\u7d9a\u304d\u3001\u30ea\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30af\u4ee5\u524d\u306b\u9ad8\u5024\u3092\u3064\u3051\u305f\u9298\u67c4\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u691c\u8a3c\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u8a72\u5f53\u3059\u308b\u306e\u306f\u3001\u30b7\u30ab\u30b4\u5c0f\u9ea6\u3001\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30e8\u30fc\u30af\u539f\u6cb9\u3001\u30cb\u30e5\u30fc\u30e8\u30fc\u30af\u767d\u91d1\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">These are monthly close data chart.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">It is important that where do we use the chart basis.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">We used 01\/2007 as starting basis.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">Following last day, we verify the market bland taking the highest before Lehman shock.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">It is the Chicago wheat, New York crude oil, and New York platinum that correspond.<\/font><\/p>\n<p>\u30c9\u30e9\u30c3\u30b1\u30f3\u30df\u30e9\u30fc\u3055\u3093\u306e\u691c\u8a3c\u306b\u4f7f\u3046\u306e\u306f\u300c\u534a\u5024\u62bc\u3057\u306f\u5168\u5024\u62bc\u3057\u300d\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u672a\u3060\u6301\u3061\u5408\u3044\u76f8\u5834\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7d50\u8ad6\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u4e0b\u306b\u3044\u304f\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3057\u3001\u4e0a\u306b\u3044\u304f\u304b\u3082\u3057\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3044\u3046\u3053\u3068\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">We use \u201cHalf-the-price recovery is all the value recovery\u201d verifying Mr. Druckenmiller.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">These markets are steadiness and may go higher or lower in future.<\/font><\/p>\n<p>\u6628\u65e5\u306e\u691c\u8a3c\u3082\u8e0f\u307e\u3048\u308b\u3068\u3001\u300c\u6bd2\u5165\u308a\u30ab\u30af\u30c6\u30eb\u300d\u3068\u3044\u3046\u306e\u306f\u7121\u3044\u3088\u3046\u306b\u898b\u3048\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3069\u306e\u9298\u67c4\u3082\u65b0\u9ad8\u5024\u306f\u3068\u3063\u3066\u3082\u3001\u30ea\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30af\u306e\u5b89\u5024\u3092\u5207\u3063\u3066\u3044\u306a\u3044\u3053\u3068\u304c\u30dd\u30a4\u30f3\u30c8\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u6bd2\u5165\u308a\u30ab\u30af\u30c6\u30eb\u300d\u3068\u3057\u3066\u8003\u3048\u51fa\u3059\u306e\u306f\u3001\u30ea\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30af\u306e\u5b89\u5024\u3092\u5272\u308a\u8fbc\u3093\u3060\u6642\u3068\u3057\u3066\u3001\u5f37\u6c17\u3092\u7dad\u6301\u3057\u305f\u3044\u3068\u601d\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">Our conclusion is \u201cthere are no poisonous cocktail\u201d<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">As for every brand, the new high has taken and not cut the low price of the Lehman shock at all.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">If the market price will cut the lowest price after Lehman shock, we will start to think about \u201cpoisonous cocktail\u201d and we are bullish until then.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/CHART5.png\" target=\"_blank\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" title=\"CHART\" style=\"border-left-width: 0px; border-right-width: 0px; border-bottom-width: 0px; display: inline; border-top-width: 0px\" border=\"0\" alt=\"CHART\" src=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/rtmain\/wp-content\/uploads\/2013\/06\/CHART_thumb5.png\" width=\"644\" height=\"415\" \/><\/a> <\/p>\n<p>&#160;<\/p>\n<p>\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?page_id=41\">Contact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font><a href=\"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?page_id=41\"><font color=\"#008080\">Contact Us<\/font><\/a><font color=\"#008080\">\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n<p><font color=\"#008080\">Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u30c9\u30e9\u30c3\u30b1\u30f3\u30df\u30e9\u30fc\u3055\u3093\u306f\u300c\u5c06\u6765\u7684\u306b\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5546\u54c1\u306f\u6bd2\u3092\u542b\u3093\u3060\u30ab\u30af\u30c6\u30eb\u3060\u300d\u3068\u8a00\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002\u691c\u8a3c\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u305d\u306e2 Mr. Druckenmiller Says \u201cIt\u2019s a poisonous cocktail when you  [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[21,17,29,30,22,3],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-5301","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-nymex-palladium","category-west-texas-intermediate","category-ny-gold","category-ny-silver","category-chicago-soybean","category-report"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5301","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=5301"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/5301\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=5301"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=5301"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=5301"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}