{"id":6831,"date":"2014-07-01T15:33:36","date_gmt":"2014-07-01T06:33:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=6831"},"modified":"2014-07-01T15:33:36","modified_gmt":"2014-07-01T06:33:36","slug":"%e7%8f%be%e5%9c%a8%e3%81%8c%e3%82%b0%e3%83%ac%e3%83%bc%e3%83%88%e3%83%bb%e3%83%a2%e3%83%87%e3%83%ac%e3%83%bc%e3%82%b7%e3%83%a7%e3%83%b3%e3%81%aa%e3%82%89%e3%80%81%e3%81%9d%e3%82%8d%e3%81%9d%e3%82%8d","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=6831","title":{"rendered":"\u73fe\u5728\u304c\u30b0\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u30fb\u30e2\u30c7\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306a\u3089\u3001\u305d\u308d\u305d\u308d\u5909\u5316\u304b\/If now may be “Great Moderation”, trend will come sooner. \/\u5982\u679c\u73b0\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u662f“\u5927\u5e73\u7a33”\uff0c\u5c31\u8d8b\u52bf\u5c06\u6765\u5f97\u65e9\u3002"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u73fe\u5728\u304c\u30b0\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u30fb\u30e2\u30c7\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306a\u3089\u3001\u305d\u308d\u305d\u308d\u5909\u5316\u304b<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

If now may be \u201cGreat Moderation\u201d, trend will come sooner.<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u73b0\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u201c\u5927\u5e73\u7a33\u201d\uff0c\u5c31\u8d8b\u52bf\u5c06\u6765\u5f97\u65e9\u3002<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u4eca\u9031\u306e\u65e5\u7d4c\u30d9\u30ea\u30bf\u30b9\u7d19\u3067\u306f\u3001\u30dc\u30e9\u30bf\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\u306e\u4f4e\u4e0b\uff08\u30b0\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u30fb\u30e2\u30c7\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\uff09\u3092\u6307\u6458\u3059\u308b\u8a18\u4e8b\u304c\u30c8\u30c3\u30d7\u3067\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u540c\u7d19\u306b\u3088\u308c\u3070\u30011995\/10\uff5e1997\/04\u30682004\/09\uff5e2007\/07\u306e\u9593\u306f\u3001\u73fe\u5728\u3068\u540c\u3058\u3088\u3046\u306b\u30dc\u30e9\u30bf\u30ea\u30c6\u30a3\u304c\u4f4e\u4e0b\u3057\u305f\u6642\u671f\u304c\u3042\u308a\u3001\u5f8c\u306b\u30a2\u30b8\u30a2\u901a\u8ca8\u5371\u6a5f\u3001\u30ea\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b7\u30e7\u30c3\u30af\u3078\u3064\u306a\u304c\u3063\u305f\u3068\u8ff0\u3079\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4eca\u56de\u306f\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u3001\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u56fd\u50b5\uff11\uff10\u5e74\u306e\u30d1\u30d5\u30a9\u30fc\u30de\u30f3\u30b9\u3092\u8abf\u67fb\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/font><\/p>\n

1995\/10\u30012004\/09\u306e\u6708\u306e\u7d42\u5024\u3092100\uff05\u3068\u3057\u305f\u3001\u6700\u521d\u306e\uff18\u304b\u6708\u9593\u306f\u5909\u52d5\u738720\uff05\u4ee5\u5185\u306b\u3001\u307b\u307c\u53ce\u307e\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\uff18\u304b\u6708\u904e\u304e\u308b\u3068\u52d5\u304d\u304c\u51fa\u59cb\u3081\u3001\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u3001\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u306f\u4e0a\u6607\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u56fd\u50b5\u306f\u4e0b\u843d\u3059\u308b\u50be\u5411\u304c\u51fa\u305f\u3088\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3055\u3089\u306b\u3001\u30b0\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u30fb\u30e2\u30c7\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306e\u671f\u9593\u304c\u904e\u304e\u308b\u3068\u3001\u5fc5\u305a\u5143\u306e\u6c34\u6e96\u306b\u623b\u308b\u73fe\u8c61\u304c\u767a\u751f\u3057\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

Nikkei Veritas in this week reports the kill of volatility (Great Moderation).<\/font><\/p>\n

According to this article, the market volatility was felled during 10\/1995-04\/1997 and 09\/2004-07\/2007 and this occasion related to the Asian currency crisis and the Lehman shock.<\/font><\/p>\n

We analyze the performance of N225, USDJPY and JGB 10 years.<\/font><\/p>\n

We treat 10\/1995 and 09\/2004 close price as 100% and can know the market volatility falls in almost 20% range in first eight months.<\/font><\/p>\n

Passing eight months, there came a movement; N225 and USDJPY were jump and JGB 10 years was fall.<\/font><\/p>\n

Moreover, after \u201cGreat Moderation\u201d will end, the market price will back to the starting price.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"1995\"<\/a><\/p>\n

\"2004\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u73fe\u5728\u306e\u76f8\u5834\u3082\u904e\u53bb\uff18\u304b\u6708\u9593\u306e\u5909\u52d5\u7387\u306f20\uff05\u4ee5\u5185\u306b\u53ce\u307e\u3063\u3066\u304a\u308a\u3001\u30b0\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u30fb\u30e2\u30c7\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3068\u4f3c\u305f\u52d5\u304d\u3068\u306a\u3063\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3082\u3057\u3001\u73fe\u5728\u304c\u30b0\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u30fb\u30e2\u30c7\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u3067\u3042\u308b\u306a\u3089\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u7d4c\u9a13\u3068\u7167\u3089\u3057\u5408\u308f\u305b\u308b\u3068\u3001\u305d\u308d\u305d\u308d\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u304c\u51fa\u3066\u3082\u826f\u3055\u305d\u3046\u306a\u9803\u5408\u3044\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u76f4\u8fd1\u306e\u4e88\u60f3\u3055\u308c\u308b\u30c8\u30ec\u30f3\u30c9\u3068\u3057\u3066\u306f\u3001\u65e5\u7d4c\u5c0f\u53cd\u767a\u3001\u30c9\u30eb\u5186\u8cb7\u3044\u3001\u65e5\u672c\u56fd\u50b510\u5e74\u8cb7\u3044\u3068\u306a\u308b\u306f\u305a\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

The latest market volatility falls in almost 20% range and this is very similar occasion.<\/font><\/p>\n

If now is \u201cGreat Moderation\u201d, there will occur some new movement.<\/font><\/p>\n

We can estimate these; N225 will be brief rally, USDJPY and JGB 10 years will be BUY.<\/font> <\/p>\n

\"2014\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font>Contact Us<\/font><\/a>\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n

These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n

Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u884c\u60c5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u6ee1\u8db3\u60a8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u6982\u4e0d\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u76c8\u4e8f\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n

\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u8bbf\u95ee\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u518d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u73fe\u5728\u304c\u30b0\u30ec\u30fc\u30c8\u30fb\u30e2\u30c7\u30ec\u30fc\u30b7\u30e7\u30f3\u306a\u3089\u3001\u305d\u308d\u305d\u308d\u5909\u5316\u304b If now may be \u201cGreat Moderation\u201d, trend will come sooner. \u5982\u679c\u73b0\u5728\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u201c\u5927\u5e73\u7a33\u201d\uff0c\u5c31\u8d8b\u52bf\u5c06\u6765\u5f97\u65e9\u3002 &#16 […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[7,3,12,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-6831","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-usdjpy","category-report","category-japanese-government-bonds-10-year","category-nikkei-225"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6831","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=6831"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6831\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":6832,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/6831\/revisions\/6832"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=6831"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=6831"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=6831"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}