{"id":7476,"date":"2014-11-22T13:33:00","date_gmt":"2014-11-22T04:33:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=7476"},"modified":"2014-11-28T13:34:10","modified_gmt":"2014-11-28T04:34:10","slug":"%e6%97%a5%e7%b5%8c%e5%b9%b3%e5%9d%87%e6%97%a5%e8%b6%b3%e3%83%bb%e8%a1%86%e9%99%a2%e8%a7%a3%e6%95%a3%e3%81%ae%e5%bd%b1%e9%9f%bf%e3%82%92%e6%af%94%e8%bc%83-%e3%81%9d%e3%81%ae3%e3%83%bb%e6%9d%a5-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/?p=7476","title":{"rendered":"\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u65e5\u8db3\u30fb\u8846\u9662\u89e3\u6563\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03 \u305d\u306e3\u30fb\u6765\u9031\u672b17900\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u304b\u300117300\u5186\u5272\u308c\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u5927\u76f8\u5834\u306e\u4e88\u611f\/NIKKEI 225 daily; Comparing the impact of dissolution of the House of Representatives Part 3; Cutting over 17900yen or 17300yen in next weekend close price will be a big deal. \/\u65e5\u7ecf225\u3002\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u89e3\u6563\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7b2c3\u90e8\u3002\u8981\u662f17900\u65e5\u5143\u591a\u6216\u4e0b\u5468\u672b\u6536\u76d8\u4ef717300\u65e5\u5143,\u5c31\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u4e0d\u4e86\u3002"},"content":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u65e5\u8db3\u30fb\u8846\u9662\u89e3\u6563\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03 \u305d\u306e3\u30fb\u6765\u9031\u672b17900\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u304b\u300117300\u5186\u5272\u308c\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u5927\u76f8\u5834\u306e\u4e88\u611f<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

NIKKEI 225 daily; Comparing the impact of dissolution of the House of Representatives Part 3; Cutting over 17900yen or 17300yen in next weekend close price will be a big deal.<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

\u65e5\u7ecf225\u3002\u6bd4\u8f83\u4f17\u8bae\u9662\u89e3\u6563\u7684\u5f71\u54cd\u3002\u7b2c3\u90e8\u3002\u8981\u662f17900\u65e5\u5143\u591a\u6216\u4e0b\u5468\u672b\u6536\u76d8\u4ef717300\u65e5\u5143,\u5c31\u5c06\u662f\u4e00\u4e2a\u5927\u4e0d\u4e86\u3002<\/strong><\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u672c\u65e5\u306f\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u65e5\u8db3\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

2014\/11\/19\u65e5\u7d4c\u65b0\u805e\u671d\u520a18\u9762\u3067\u306f\u3001\u300e\u300c\u89e3\u6563\u306f\u8cb7\u3044\u300d\u306e\u6b7b\u89d2\u300f\u306b\u3064\u3044\u3066\u3001\u691c\u8a3c\u304c\u306a\u3055\u308c\u3066\u304a\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u8a18\u4e8b\u3067\u7d39\u4ecb\u3055\u308c\u3066\u3044\u305f\u8846\u9662\u89e3\u6563\u65e5\u306f\u904e\u53bb13\u56de\u3002<\/p>\n

\u8846\u9662\u89e3\u6563\u65e5\u304b\u3089\u3001Retar INDEX\u3092\u4f7f\u3044\u3001\u3069\u306e\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52d5\u3044\u305f\u306e\u304b\u3092\u691c\u8a3c\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

Today\u2019s analyze is NIKKEI 225 daily.<\/font><\/p>\n

Nikkei newspaper article in 11\/19\/2014 referred to \u201cImpact of dissolution in blind spot\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

In this article, they referred to 13 times dissolution of the House of Representatives.<\/font><\/p>\n

We verify using our Retar INDEX.<\/font><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u3044\u3088\u3044\u3088\u3001\u89e3\u6563\u65e5\u306e\u7d42\u502417357.51\u5186\u304c\u6c7a\u5b9a\u3057\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4eca\u5f8c\u3092\u60f3\u5b9a\u3059\u308b\u4e0a\u3067\u3001\u89e3\u6563\u3068\u3044\u3046\u30a4\u30d9\u30f3\u30c8\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u30e2\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30e0\u304c\u7d9a\u304f\u3068\u307f\u308b\u5206\u6790\u304c\u6709\u52b9\u3060\u3068\u307f\u3066\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u904e\u53bb\u306e\u5024\u52d5\u304d\u306e\u30c1\u30e3\u30fc\u30c8\u306b\u91cd\u306d\u3066\u307f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u521d\u52d5\uff15\u65e5\u9593\u306f\u91cd\u8981\u306a\u5c90\u8def\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u521d\u52d5\u306e5\u65e5\u9593\u3067\u3001\u5024\u52d5\u304d\u304c1\u03c3\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u3066\u304f\u308b\u3068\u4e0a\u6607\u30e2\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30e0\u306f\u7d9a\u304d\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u307e\u305f\u3001\u521d\u52d5\u306e5\u65e5\u9593\u30671\u03c3\u3092\u8d85\u3048\u3089\u308c\u306a\u3044\u3068\u3001\u3044\u308f\u3086\u308b\u300c\u30aa\u30ef\u30c3\u30bf\u300d\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3084\u3059\u304f\u3001\u6301\u3061\u5408\u3044\u304b\u3089\u4e0b\u843d\u50be\u5411\u3068\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u521d\u52d5\u306e5\u65e5\u9593\u3067-1\u03c3\u3092\u4e0b\u56de\u3063\u3066\u304f\u308b\u3068\u3001\u89e3\u6563\u5f8c\u306e\u4e0b\u3052\u8db3\u3092\u901f\u3081\u308b\u7d50\u679c\u3068\u306a\u308a\u3001\u4e0b\u964d\u30e2\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30e0\u304c\u7d9a\u304f\u3053\u3068\u306b\u306a\u308a\u3084\u3059\u3044\u3002<\/p>\n

Now, the close price of dissolution day determined 17357.51yen.<\/font><\/p>\n

Assuming in future, we think the dissolution impact keep for some time; this event provides some momentum.<\/font><\/p>\n

Applying this to the past price chart, the first 5 business days from dissolution is very important.<\/font><\/p>\n

Going over one sigma in the first 5 business day will mean the start of the bull market.<\/font><\/p>\n

And cannot go over one sigma in the first 5 business day will mean steadiness or falling.<\/font><\/p>\n

Not go over minus one sigma in the first 5 business day will mean the start of the bear market.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"CHART1\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u3067\u306f\u30012014\/11\/21\u306e\u7d42\u502417357.51\u5186\u306b\u5bfe\u3057\u30e2\u30c7\u30ea\u30f3\u30b0\u3059\u308b\u3068\u3001\u6765\u9031\u672b\uff082014\/11\/28\uff09\u306e\u7d42\u5024\u306e1\u03c3\u306f17926\u5186\u3001\uff0d\uff11\u03c3\u306f17271\u5186\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u30e2\u30c7\u30eb\u306e\u9650\u754c\u306f33\u55b6\u696d\u65e5\u3068\u306a\u308a2015\/1\/15\u307e\u3067\u304c\u60f3\u5b9a\u306e\u9650\u754c\u3067\u3059\u3002\uff082014\/11\/19\u30ec\u30dd\u30fc\u30c8\u53c2\u7167<\/a>\uff09<\/p>\n

\u4e0a\u6607\u30e2\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30e0\u306b\u4e57\u308b\u3068\u3001\u60f3\u5b9a\u9650\u754c\u306b\u8fd1\u304f\u306a\u308a\u307e\u3059\u304c\u3001\u5e74\u660e\u3051\u306b\u306f19000\u5186\u3092\u63a2\u308b\u52d5\u304d\u3068\u306a\u308a\u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3082\u3061\u308d\u3093\u3001\u904e\u53bb\u306b\u306f\u300c\u591a\u5c11\u4e0a\u3052\u305f\u3051\u3069\u300d\u7a0b\u5ea6\u306e\u3001\u3082\u307f\u5408\u3044\u3067\u3042\u3063\u305f\u3053\u3068\u304c\u307b\u3068\u3093\u3069\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u4e00\u65b9\u3001\u4e0b\u964d\u30e2\u30e1\u30f3\u30bf\u30e0\u306b\u4e57\u3063\u305f\u5b9f\u7e3e\u3082\u3042\u308a\u3001\u305d\u306e\u5834\u5408\u3001\u5e74\u660e\u3051\u306b\u306f16000\u5186\u5272\u308c\u3068\u306a\u308a\u305d\u3046\u3067\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

Now, last weekend close price was 17357.51yen and applying this.<\/font><\/p>\n

We can calculate the next weekend close price (11\/28\/2014) are 17926yen (one sigma) and 17271yen (minus one sigma).<\/font><\/p>\n

This model end is 33 business days. (See 11\/19\/2014 report<\/a>)<\/font><\/p>\n

If the market will be powerful bull, the market price will be 19000yen over at the beginning of the next year.<\/font><\/p>\n

In past occasions, most cases are short bit bull market and became steadiness.<\/font><\/p>\n

We need to remind this event made bear market kick; applying this, the market price will cut 16000yen at the beginning of the next year.<\/font><\/p>\n

\"CHART2\"<\/a><\/p>\n

 <\/p>\n

\u76f8\u5834\u5206\u6790\u306e\u30ea\u30af\u30a8\u30b9\u30c8\u304c\u3042\u308a\u307e\u3057\u305f\u3089\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u304b\u3089\u304a\u77e5\u3089\u305b\u304f\u3060\u3055\u3044\u3002\u3054\u8981\u671b\u306b\u304a\u5fdc\u3048\u3067\u304d\u308b\u3088\u3046\u306b\u52aa\u529b\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

\u3053\u306e\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u3042\u304f\u307e\u3067\u3082\u500b\u4eba\u7684\u306a\u898b\u89e3\u3067\u3042\u308a\u3001\u6295\u8cc7\u5224\u65ad\u306f\u5404\u81ea\u3067\u304a\u9858\u3044\u81f4\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002\u5f53\u30d6\u30ed\u30b0\u306f\u4e00\u5207\u306e\u6295\u8cc7\u640d\u76ca\u306b\u5bfe\u3059\u308b\u8cac\u4efb\u3092\u8ca0\u3044\u307e\u305b\u3093\u3002<\/p>\n

\u30db\u30fc\u30e0\u30da\u30fc\u30b8\u306b\u6765\u3066\u4e0b\u3055\u3063\u3066\u3042\u308a\u304c\u3068\u3046\u3054\u3056\u3044\u307e\u3059\u3002\u660e\u65e5\u3082\u3088\u308d\u3057\u304f\u304a\u9858\u3044\u3044\u305f\u3057\u307e\u3059\u3002<\/p>\n

If you have some request to analyze, please write to \u201c<\/font>Contact Us<\/font><\/a>\u201d.<\/font><\/p>\n

We do best effort for your request.<\/font><\/p>\n

These are only personal opinions on this blog, and you need the investment judgment in each one. This blog doesn\u2019t assume the responsibility to all the investment profit and loss.<\/font><\/p>\n

Thank for watching our contents. My best regards next day.<\/font><\/p>\n

\u5982\u679c\u60a8\u9700\u8981\u884c\u60c5\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u8bf7\u70b9\u51fb\u201cContact Us<\/a>\u201d\u8054\u7cfb\u6211\u4eec\u3002\u6211\u4eec\u5c06\u5c3d\u529b\u6ee1\u8db3\u60a8\u7684\u8981\u6c42\u3002<\/p>\n

\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u4ec5\u4e3a\u4e2a\u4eba\u610f\u89c1\uff0c\u8bf7\u5404\u81ea\u505a\u51fa\u6295\u8d44\u5224\u65ad\u3002\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u6982\u4e0d\u5bf9\u4efb\u4f55\u6295\u8d44\u76c8\u4e8f\u8d1f\u8d23\u3002<\/p>\n

\u611f\u8c22\u60a8\u8bbf\u95ee\u672c\u535a\u5ba2\u3002\u6b22\u8fce\u518d\u6b21\u4f7f\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u65e5\u7d4c\u5e73\u5747\u65e5\u8db3\u30fb\u8846\u9662\u89e3\u6563\u306e\u5f71\u97ff\u3092\u6bd4\u8f03 \u305d\u306e3\u30fb\u6765\u9031\u672b17900\u5186\u8d85\u3048\u304b\u300117300\u5186\u5272\u308c\u306b\u306a\u308b\u3068\u5927\u76f8\u5834\u306e\u4e88\u611f NIKKEI 225 daily; Comparing the impact of dissolution of […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[3,8],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-7476","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-report","category-nikkei-225"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7476","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=7476"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7476\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":7480,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/7476\/revisions\/7480"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=7476"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=7476"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.retar.jp\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=7476"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}